104 White Ridge Ln · Bethel Manor, VA 23693

$275,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,482 sqft · Townhouse public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1992 $186/sqft · 11% below area Est $307k · 11% under $130/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath townhome in the desirable Ferguson Glade community of Yorktown. This inviting home features a spacious, functional layout with comfortable living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and opens seamlessly to the main living area. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and convenience. An excellent opportunity for first-time

Key facts

• $130 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1992

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#474 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Coventry Elementary (math 84% / reading 89%, grade A+, #47 of 1,108 statewide, top 5%, 623 students, 38% FRL); Grafton Middle (math 77% / reading 88%, grade A+, #18 of 342 statewide, top 5%, 874 students, 0% FRL); Grafton High (math 74% / reading 93%, grade A, #30 of 319 statewide, top 10%, 1,212 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 15% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,623 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,370
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -10.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 White Ridge Ln	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,482 (0%)	1mo	$262,000	$177	99
101 Grindstone Turn	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,441 (-3%)	5mo	$315,000	$219	88
149 Seekright Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,466 (-1%)	8mo	$315,000	$215	81
121 Sterling Ct	0.26mi	2/2.5	1,367 (-8%)	2mo	$285,000	$208	73
115 Seekright Dr	0.11mi	2/2.5	1,656 (+12%)	8mo	$315,000	$190	69
207 Andover Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,349 (-9%)	2mo	$309,900	$230	67
302 Monument Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,440 (-3%)	3mo	$300,000	$208	65
122 Foundry Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (-8%)	1mo	$310,000	$229	64
206 Andover Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (-10%)	7mo	$305,000	$228	61
109 Sterling Ct	0.27mi	2/2.5	1,276 (-14%)	6mo	$280,000	$219	60
122 Sterling Ct	0.29mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,289 (-13%)	8mo	$250,000	$194	53
805 Hamlet Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,697 (+14%)	0mo	$323,000	$190	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,168
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-37,731
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23693

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,173/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $233,403

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-158	+0% $-235	+5% $-313	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-399	-5% $-317	+0% $-235	+5% $-154	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-166	base $-235	+0.5pp $-307	+1.0pp $-379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Chanticlair Dr Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	19d	1	0.27mi
122 Sterling Ct Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.5	1289	$2,100	$1.63	0d	1	0.28mi
110 Foundry Ct Yorktown, VA	2.0	2.5	1278	$1,700	$1.33	16d	1	0.32mi
210 Durham Ct Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,100	$1.46	23d	1	0.39mi
101 Saint Clair Cir Yorktown, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1205	$1,656	$1.37	3d	20	0.63mi
100 White Cedar Ln Yorktown, VA	3.0	3.0	1699	$2,425	$1.43	9d	1	1.13mi
173 Louise Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,492	$1.49	45d	5	1.16mi
4 Delmont Ct Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,800	$1.68	6d	1	1.21mi
20 Lenora Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1030	$1,950	$1.89	13d	1	1.24mi
100 Post Oak Rd Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.5	1561	$2,175	$1.39	18d	1	1.26mi
100 Post Oak Rd Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.5	1561	$2,175	$1.39	16d	1	1.26mi
100 Armory St Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1190	$2,409	$2.02	45d	1	1.32mi
3100 Hampton Hwy Yorktown, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	977	$2,002	$2.05	0d	7	1.33mi
6 Old Pond Ct Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	1494	$2,695	$1.80	19d	1	1.38mi
1 Guenevere Ct Apt D Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,029	$1.35	9d	1	1.38mi
1049 Willow Green Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1559	$2,000	$1.28	45d	1	1.47mi
1116 N Green Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	2.5	1288	$1,550	$1.20	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Under Contract 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath townhome in the desirable Ferguson Glade community of Yorktown. This inviting home features a spacious, functional layout with comfortable living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and opens seamlessly to the main living area. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and convenience. An excellent opportunity for first-time

2. 2026-04-16
   price $275,000 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath townhome in the desirable Ferguson Glade community of Yorktown. This inviting home features a spacious, functional layout with comfortable living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and opens seamlessly to the main living area. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and convenience. An excellent opportunity for first-time

3. 2026-04-16
   status Active 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath townhome in the desirable Ferguson Glade community of Yorktown. This inviting home features a spacious, functional layout with comfortable living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and opens seamlessly to the main living area. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and convenience. An excellent opportunity for first-time

4. 2026-04-09
   status Under Contract 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath townhome in the desirable Ferguson Glade community of Yorktown. This inviting home features a spacious, functional layout with comfortable living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and opens seamlessly to the main living area. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and convenience. An excellent opportunity for first-time

5. 2026-03-26
   listed $300,000 Active 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath townhome in the desirable Ferguson Glade community of Yorktown. This inviting home features a spacious, functional layout with comfortable living areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and opens seamlessly to the main living area. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways, this home provides both comfort and convenience. An excellent opportunity for first-time

6. 2022-03-21
   soldstatus $260,000
7. 2022-02-28
   status Under Contract
8. 2022-02-21
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2022-02-14
   status Active
10. 2022-01-28
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2022-01-26
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,173
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,844
• After-tax cash flow: $-981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bethel Manor

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #20477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment C Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 42,477 people
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,176
• Household income: $124,433
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 629.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 12% Asian 12% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7889
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $275,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-04-09 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $300,000 REINMLS
• 2022-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-28 Pending — REINMLS
• 2022-02-21 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2022-02-14 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2022-01-28 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2022-01-26 Listed $250,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,173 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.