104 Groff Rd

Ursina, PA 15424

$34,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,017/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $565/mo
• Annual: $6,775/yr
• Cap rate: 25.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.33%
• DSCR: 4.08
• 1% rule: 2.91%
• Cash to close: $9,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $408 of equity ($241 loan paydown + $167 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,631 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Turkeyfoot Valley Area SD (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #473 of 658 in PA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turkeyfoot Valley Area El Sch (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,125 of 1,518 statewide, top 75%, 150 students, 100% FRL); Turkeyfoot Valley Area Jshs (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #325 of 437 statewide, top 75%, 126 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 52% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Turkeyfoot Valley Area SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Somerset County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.