104 Groff Rd · Ursina, PA 15424

$34,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1890 0.26 ac lot $35/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice location just off the main highway in the Borough Of Ursina, In need of a good bit of work, Listing does include double lots 255 & 266

Key facts

• Double lots
• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1890

Tags

• DOUBLE LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,631 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Turkeyfoot Valley Area SD (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #473 of 658 in PA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turkeyfoot Valley Area El Sch (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,125 of 1,518 statewide, top 75%, 150 students, 100% FRL); Turkeyfoot Valley Area Jshs (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #325 of 437 statewide, top 75%, 126 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 52% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Turkeyfoot Valley Area SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $408 of equity ($241 loan paydown + $167 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.33%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,807
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -75.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $35,740
• Equity at exit: $10,975

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.49×
• Total profit: $82,969
• Equity at exit: $13,885

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15424

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $497/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $303

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $584	-5% $574	+0% $565	+5% $555	+10% $545
Rent	-10% $484	-5% $524	+0% $565	+5% $605	+10% $645
Rate	-1.0pp $582	-0.5pp $573	base $565	+0.5pp $555	+1.0pp $546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $34,900 Pending 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $34,900 Contingent 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Contingent 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,900 Contingent 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,900 Contingent 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $34,900 Contingent 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $34,900 Contingent 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $34,900 Contingent 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $34,900 Contingent 62 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Contingent 61 DOM
11. 2026-05-12
    historical Contingent 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Nice location just off the main highway in the Borough Of Ursina, In need of a good bit of work, Listing does include double lots 255 & 266

12. 2026-05-08
    price $34,900 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Nice location just off the main highway in the Borough Of Ursina, In need of a good bit of work, Listing does include double lots 255 & 266

13. 2026-03-31
    listed $39,900 Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Nice location just off the main highway in the Borough Of Ursina, In need of a good bit of work, Listing does include double lots 255 & 266

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $497 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $524 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$27/yr (+$2/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$497
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$976
• − Management: −$976
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $6,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,587
• After-tax cash flow: $5,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turkeyfoot Valley Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4223880
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,899
• Composite: 39.59/100
• National rank: #8059
• State rank: #473 of 658 in PA

Livability — Ursina

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1631
• US rank: #22473

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ursina, PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,059

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,318 people
• By 2030: 68,555 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,447 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 56,437 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 44,453 · -37.7%
• By 2100: 32,408 · -54.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.9 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 132.5715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $34,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $39,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $497 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.