49115 Stafford Rd

Tickfaw, LA 70466

$127,500C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 976 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $207/mo
• Annual: $2,489/yr
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.97%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $35,700

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($882 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#203 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Park Magnet (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #597 of 646 statewide, top 95%, 519 students, 88% FRL); Lucille Nesom Memorial (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #534 of 646 statewide, top 83%, 549 students, 83% FRL); Independence High Magnet (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #224 of 265 statewide, top 86%, 570 students, 80% FRL).
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.3% in Tickfaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.