Is 49115 Stafford Rd in Tickfaw, LA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C+ with a 8.2% cap rate and $207/mo modeled cash flow at a $127,500 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 49115 Stafford Rd?

The modeled cap rate is 8.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,378/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C+ Composite 63.61

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +22.2/30.0
ARV discount +11.0/15.0
DSCR +7.1/10.0
Appreciation +6.8/10.0
1% rule +5.8/10.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Schools +1.3/10.0

$127,500

49115 Stafford Rd · Tickfaw, LA 70466

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition $131/sqft · 8% below area Est $138k · 8% under ↓ 6% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on approximately 2 acres in Tickfaw, this 2018 mobile home offers peaceful country living with a functional and well-maintained layout. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home includes an open living and kitchen area designed for comfortable everyday living. The spacious primary suite offers a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while the additional bedroom and bath provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Conveniently located near Hwy 442 and New Gennessee Rd, this property offers a quiet setting with room to enjoy the outdoors.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Quiet setting
Functional layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
Recommended offer: $120k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.3% in Tickfaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 63/100 on livability (#203 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Woodland Park Magnet (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #597 of 646 statewide, top 95%, 519 students, 88% FRL); Lucille Nesom Memorial (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #534 of 646 statewide, top 83%, 549 students, 83% FRL); Independence High Magnet (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #224 of 265 statewide, top 86%, 570 students, 80% FRL).
Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $6k of equity ($882 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,850 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.08% ✓
Cap rate: 8.25%
Cash-on-cash: 6.97%
DSCR: 1.31
GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $138,279
List price: $127,500
Delta: -7.80%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50111 Oller Rd	1.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+25%)	8mo	$86,000	$71	28
13217 Miley Niquiporo Ln	0.87mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+23%)	15mo	$91,000	$76	22
57027 Oliphant Trl	1.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+23%)	28mo	$229,000	$191	15
57123 Oliphant Trl	1.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+23%)	29mo	$229,000	$191	15
57009 Oliphant Trl	1.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+23%)	30mo	$229,000	$191	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 15.6%
Equity multiple: 1.92×
Total profit: $32,958
Equity at exit: $61,973

10-year hold

IRR: 16.8%
Equity multiple: 3.62×
Total profit: $93,598
Equity at exit: $99,287

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 1 active
Median asking: $75,000 ($75/sqft)
Median days on market: 67 d
This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +88.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70466

Home prices YoY: 3.0%
Active inventory: 78
Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,378 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$669
Tax est. 1.5%: −$159 /mo · $1,912/yr
Insurance: −$53
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $127,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $252	+0% $207	+5% $163	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $153	+0% $207	+5% $262	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $240	base $207	+0.5pp $174	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $31,875
Closing costs: $3,825
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Exterior

Parking: Driveway
Utilities: Public waterSeptic tank sewer
Home design: Single-story home
Construction: Vinyl sidingShingle roofRaised foundation
Exterior features: Rectangular lotLocated outside city limitsLot dimensions approximately 148 x 591 x 149 x 601Raised foundation

Interior

Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Total of 8 roomsExcellent condition

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $127,500 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $127,500 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $127,500 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $127,500 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $127,500 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $127,500 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $127,500 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $127,500 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $127,500 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $127,500 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $127,500 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $127,500 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $127,500 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $127,500 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $127,500 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $127,500 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $127,500 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $127,500 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $127,500 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $127,500 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $127,500 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $127,500 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $127,500 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $127,500 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $127,500 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $127,500 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $127,500 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $127,500 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $127,500 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $127,500 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $127,500 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $127,500 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $127,500 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $127,500 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $127,500 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $127,500 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $127,500 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $127,500 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $127,500 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $127,500 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-19

days on market $127,500 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $127,500 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $127,500 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $127,500 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $127,500 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $127,500 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $127,500 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $127,500 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $127,500 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $127,500 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $16,535
− Mortgage interest: −$7,142
− Property taxes: −$1,912
− Insurance: −$638
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
− Management: −$1,323
− Depreciation: −$3,709
Taxable income: $489

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$117
After-tax cash flow: $2,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,880–$14,640 screening

This mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall appearance of the property and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodland Park Magnet F LA #597/646 Nat'l #39,071/41,679 Middle Lucille Nesom Memorial F LA #534/646 Nat'l #37,303/41,679 High Independence High Magnet F LA #224/265 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Tangipahoa Parish
NCES district ID: 2201680
Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
Median HH income: $41,283
Composite: 19.94/100
National rank: #8676
State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Tickfaw

Score: 63/100
State rank: #203
US rank: #15825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Tangipahoa · 144,204 people
Metro: Hammond, LA
Population (ZIP): 9,815
Household income: $63,691
Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 144,204 people
By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
Current HPI: 126.0016
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Telecommunications	2	$23B
#304 Lumen Technologies Monroe $13.4B #312 CenturyLink Monroe $9.2B
Utilities	1	$12B
#235 Entergy New Orleans $11.7B
Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
#448 Pool Corporation Covington $5.3B
Advertising	1	$2B
#479 Lamar Advertising Baton Rouge $2.1B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-05-27 Price Changed $127,500 AcadianaMLS
2026-05-27 Price Changed $127,500 GSREIN
2026-05-11 Listed $135,000 GSREIN
2026-05-11 Listed $135,000 AcadianaMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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