49115 Stafford Rd · Natalbany, LA 70466

$127,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition $131/sqft · 7% below area Est $138k · 7% under ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on approximately 2 acres in Tickfaw, this 2018 mobile home offers peaceful country living with a functional and well-maintained layout. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home includes an open living and kitchen area designed for comfortable everyday living. The spacious primary suite offers a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while the additional bedroom and bath provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Conveniently located near Hwy 442 and New Gennessee Rd, this property offers a quiet setting with room to enjoy the outdoors.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Quiet setting
• Functional layout

Tags

• PEACEFUL COUNTRY LIVING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• OPEN LIVING AND KITCHEN AREA
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• QUIET SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Raised foundation
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot; Located outside city limits; Lot dimensions approximately 148 x 591 x 149 x 601; Raised foundation

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 8 rooms; Excellent condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.5% in Natalbany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#208 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($882 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,675 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.20%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,552
• List price: $127,500
• Delta: -7.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $33,391
• Equity at exit: $61,973

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $94,535
• Equity at exit: $99,287

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70466

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$159 /mo · $1,912/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $127,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $127,500 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,500 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,500 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,500 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,500 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,500 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,500 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,500 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $127,500 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,500 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $127,500 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,500 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,500 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,500 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,500 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $127,500 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $135,000 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Situated on approximately 2 acres in Tickfaw, this 2018 mobile home offers peaceful country living with a functional and well-maintained layout. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home includes an open living and kitchen area designed for comfortable everyday living. The spacious primary suite offers a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while the additional bedroom and bath provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Conveniently located near Hwy 442 and New Gennessee Rd, this property offers a quiet setting with room to enjoy the outdoors.

19. 2026-05-11
    listed $135,000 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Situated on approximately 2 acres in Tickfaw, this 2018 mobile home offers peaceful country living with a functional and well-maintained layout. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the home includes an open living and kitchen area designed for comfortable everyday living. The spacious primary suite offers a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while the additional bedroom and bath provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Conveniently located near Hwy 442 and New Gennessee Rd, this property offers a quiet setting with room to enjoy the outdoors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$1,912
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable income: $575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $2,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall appearance of the property and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall appearance of the property and make it more inviting for potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natalbany

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #16184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 73
• Population (ZIP): 9,815

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 126.0016
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $127,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $127,500 GSREIN
• 2026-05-11 Listed $135,000 GSREIN
• 2026-05-11 Listed $135,000 AcadianaMLS