5203 Truax Rd

Wellington, MI 49753

$128,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $89/mo
• Annual: $1,063/yr
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $35,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (16.2% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($885 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillman Community Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #361 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillman Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,035 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 187 students, 61% FRL); Hillman Community Jrsr High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 228 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Alpena County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alpena County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $128k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.