5203 Truax Rd · Wellington, MI 49753

$128,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1945 1.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet, cozy, and peaceful beautiful setting. Three-bedroom one bath home. Very nice size living room with a fireplace that can heat the whole house. Galley kitchen with great cupboard space. With just a little extra love this home will be fabulous.

Key facts

• Over 1.5 acres
• Open yard
• 1.52 acre lot

Tags

• OVER 1.5 ACRES
• OPEN YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.52 acre lot (330 x 200); Approximately 1,072 above-grade finished area

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel road access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Propane utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property type
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating available; Wood heating / wood stove; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Wood burning stove; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillman Community Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #361 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillman Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,035 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 187 students, 61% FRL); Hillman Community Jrsr High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 228 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Alpena County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($885 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Alpena County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $128k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $107,296 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $68,948
• Equity at exit: $108,562

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $197,065
• Equity at exit: $227,287

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49753

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $413/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $125	+0% $89	+5% $52	+10% $16
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $46	+0% $89	+5% $131	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $153	-0.5pp $121	base $89	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $128,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $128,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $128,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $128,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $128,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $130,000 Active
19. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus $59,520 Closed 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Quiet, cozy, and peaceful beautiful setting. Three-bedroom one bath home. Very nice size living room with a fireplace that can heat the whole house. Galley kitchen with great cupboard space. With just a little extra love this home will be fabulous.

20. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus $59,520

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Quiet, cozy, and peaceful beautiful setting. Three-bedroom one bath home. Very nice size living room with a fireplace that can heat the whole house. Galley kitchen with great cupboard space. With just a little extra love this home will be fabulous.

21. 2023-01-05
    historical Active Under Contract 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Quiet, cozy, and peaceful beautiful setting. Three-bedroom one bath home. Very nice size living room with a fireplace that can heat the whole house. Galley kitchen with great cupboard space. With just a little extra love this home will be fabulous.

22. 2023-01-05
    status Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Quiet, cozy, and peaceful beautiful setting. Three-bedroom one bath home. Very nice size living room with a fireplace that can heat the whole house. Galley kitchen with great cupboard space. With just a little extra love this home will be fabulous.

23. 2022-12-08
    historical Active Under Contract 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Quiet, cozy, and peaceful beautiful setting. Three-bedroom one bath home. Very nice size living room with a fireplace that can heat the whole house. Galley kitchen with great cupboard space. With just a little extra love this home will be fabulous.

24. 2022-05-31
    listed $64,000 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Quiet, cozy, and peaceful beautiful setting. Three-bedroom one bath home. Very nice size living room with a fireplace that can heat the whole house. Galley kitchen with great cupboard space. With just a little extra love this home will be fabulous.

25. 1996-07-22
    soldstatus $30,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $413 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$779/yr (+$65/mo · 188.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$413
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable loss: −$1,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$272
• After-tax cash flow: $1,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillman Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618360
• Math proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,668
• Composite: 25.78/100
• National rank: #7368
• State rank: #361 of 540 in MI

Livability — Wellington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,722

Population outlook (Alpena County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,245 people
• By 2030: 26,142 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 23,449 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 20,729 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 15,422 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 10,723 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 8% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Alpena

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.6) · D 35.1% · R 63.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.9pp · 2024: -28.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.6 2020: R+27.6 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Current HPI: 303.1261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+324.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $130,000 WWMLS
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $59,520 Public Records
• 2023-02-06 Sold (MLS) $59,520 WWMLS
• 2023-01-05 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2023-01-05 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2022-12-08 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2022-05-31 Listed $64,000 WWMLS
• 1996-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $30,600 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $413 · -46.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.