177 Indian Cyn

Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$169,000D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 688 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,397/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-64/mo
• Annual: $-771/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-771/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (17.3% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bill Brown El (math 58% / reading 63%, grade B-, #385 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 910 students, 26% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Smithson Valley H S (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,332 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 750 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.