20106 Jamestown Rd. #30 #30

Jamestown, CA 95370

$69,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,631/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $885/mo
• Annual: $10,626/yr
• Cap rate: 21.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.00%
• DSCR: 3.45
• 1% rule: 2.36%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Columbia Union (rural): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #383 of 517 in CA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.