20106 Jamestown Rd. #30 #30 · Jamestown, CA 95370

$69,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Value Priced and move in ready. This single wide mobile is tucked away in Star Mobile Home Estates. It is a smaller park with a very convenient location to shopping, restaurants, medical, schools and playgrounds. About 2.5 hour from most Bay Area Location. The home has 2 good sized bedrooms and 2 full baths, an extra large kitchen with lots of counter space and cabinets for Holiday Baking or Craft Projects. There is a cute barn style shed on site. The home is in good condition and has a fenced yard with a nice ramp to the back door and 2 off street parking places. There are washer and dryer hookups in a hall cubby. The seller will need a bit of a rent back, but has a home in mind. Appointme

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Fenced yard
• Barn style shed

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• EXTRA LARGE KITCHEN
• FENCED YARD
• BARN STYLE SHED
• OFF STREET PARKING
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single wide; Model 2602B; Main entry at street level
• Construction: Masonite exterior
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level/main entry)
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Accessible approach with ramp
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Columbia Union (rural): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #383 of 517 in CA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.00%
• DSCR: 3.45
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,160
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20106 Jamestown Rd #4	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,008 (0%)	12mo	$146,000	$145	90
20106 Jamestown Rd #10	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+11%)	11mo	$136,000	$121	68
19875 S Panorama Pl	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	13mo	$225,000	$213	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $45,195
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $111,890
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $151/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $510

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $69,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $151 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $524 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$374/yr (+$31/mo · 248.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$151
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $10,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,418
• After-tax cash flow: $8,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia Union
• NCES district ID: 0609480
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,469
• Composite: 22.83/100
• National rank: #8013
• State rank: #383 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,825
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $69,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $151 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.