6509 Big Oak Dr

Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$279,900D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,576 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,321/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$763
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-397/mo
• Annual: $-4,766/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Gulf Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.