6509 Big Oak Dr · Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1999 0.57 ac lot $109/sqft · 29% below area Est $370k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on a quiet, wooded half-acre lot, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the space, privacy, and flexibility today's buyers are searching for while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and the highly regarded St. Martin School District. With approximately 2,400 square feet, the home features a functional layout designed for everyday living, including wide hallways, generously sized rooms, and natural light from skylights in both the living room and primary suite. The open flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas creates an ideal space for both relaxing and entertaining. In addition to four bedrooms, a versatile bonus room provides the perfect setup for a home office, playroom, or second living area ideal for remote work or growing households. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, hobbies, or family needs. Enjoy the peaceful setting from the front porch, surrounded by mature trees and set back by a long private drive. The property also includes a concrete pad ready for a workshop or storage building, along with covered parking under the home. Major updates include a 5-ton Rheem HVAC system (less than 5 years old) and a whole home Generac home generator with a 2 year warranty, Hardy Plank Cement Siding around the entire exterior of the home. Conveniently located just a short drive to Keesler Air Force Base, as well as the shops, dining, beaches, and vibrant downtown of Ocean Springs, this property offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. If you've been searching for space, functionality, and a quiet setting with easy access to everything the Coast has to offerthis one delivers.

Key facts

• Long private drive
• Walk-in closet
• Private wooded lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED LOT
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• MATURE TREES
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• LONG PRIVATE DRIVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Gulf Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,743 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,700
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -24.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6004 Penni Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,519 (-2%)	6mo	$395,000	$157	62
11645 Brookstone Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,253 (-12%)	10mo	$346,000	$154	61
6991 Osprey Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-12%)	6mo	$326,000	$144	59
6108 Penni Ln	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,495 (-3%)	12mo	$385,000	$154	59
6253 Sandhill Cv	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,409 (-6%)	11mo	$374,900	$156	56
11625 Talla Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,304 (-11%)	3mo	$370,000	$161	56
11584 Paige Cv	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,304 (-11%)	3mo	$319,500	$139	53
11805 Moss Creek Ct	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,314 (-10%)	0mo	$386,071	$167	51
12221 Savannah Cir	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,519 (-2%)	11mo	$399,900	$159	50
6028 Cardona Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,720 (+6%)	2mo	$410,200	$151	49
6033 Salt Bush Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,720 (+6%)	2mo	$407,909	$150	49
12210 Savannah Cir	0.73mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,741 (+6%)	0mo	$330,000	$120	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-74,314
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-111,792
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,632/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,823

Max offer price $209,743

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11404 Harrison Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,950	$1.41	20d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    price $279,900 1773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1773 chars)

    Tucked away on a quiet, wooded half-acre lot, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the space, privacy, and flexibility today's buyers are searching for while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and the highly regarded St. Martin School District. With approximately 2,400 square feet, the home features a functional layout designed for everyday living, including wide hallways, generously sized rooms, and natural light from skylights in both the living room and primary suite. The open flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas creates an ideal space for both relaxing and entertaining. In addition to four bedrooms, a versatile bonus room provides the perfect setup for a home office, playroom, or second living area ideal for remote work or growing households. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, hobbies, or family needs. Enjoy the peaceful setting from the front porch, surrounded by mature trees and set back by a long private drive. The property also includes a concrete pad ready for a workshop or storage building, along with covered parking under the home. Major updates include a 5-ton Rheem HVAC system (less than 5 years old) and a whole home Generac home generator with a 2 year warranty, Hardy Plank Cement Siding around the entire exterior of the home. Conveniently located just a short drive to Keesler Air Force Base, as well as the shops, dining, beaches, and vibrant downtown of Ocean Springs, this property offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. If you've been searching for space, functionality, and a quiet setting with easy access to everything the Coast has to offerthis one delivers.

18. 2026-03-04
    listed $289,900 Active 1773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1773 chars)

    Tucked away on a quiet, wooded half-acre lot, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the space, privacy, and flexibility today's buyers are searching for while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and the highly regarded St. Martin School District. With approximately 2,400 square feet, the home features a functional layout designed for everyday living, including wide hallways, generously sized rooms, and natural light from skylights in both the living room and primary suite. The open flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas creates an ideal space for both relaxing and entertaining. In addition to four bedrooms, a versatile bonus room provides the perfect setup for a home office, playroom, or second living area ideal for remote work or growing households. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, hobbies, or family needs. Enjoy the peaceful setting from the front porch, surrounded by mature trees and set back by a long private drive. The property also includes a concrete pad ready for a workshop or storage building, along with covered parking under the home. Major updates include a 5-ton Rheem HVAC system (less than 5 years old) and a whole home Generac home generator with a 2 year warranty, Hardy Plank Cement Siding around the entire exterior of the home. Conveniently located just a short drive to Keesler Air Force Base, as well as the shops, dining, beaches, and vibrant downtown of Ocean Springs, this property offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. If you've been searching for space, functionality, and a quiet setting with easy access to everything the Coast has to offerthis one delivers.

19. 2025-10-08
    historical
20. 2025-09-06
    price $299,000
21. 2025-08-13
    price $309,000
22. 2025-08-05
    price $314,000
23. 2025-06-12
    price $319,000
24. 2025-05-14
    listed $329,000 Active
25. 2008-11-19
    soldstatus
26. 2008-05-20
    listed $169,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,632 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,632 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$2,632
• − Insurance: −$6,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,228
• − Management: −$2,228
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$9,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Hills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #7310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Hills, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+65.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $279,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-04 Listed $289,900 MLSU
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $299,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $309,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $314,000 MLSU
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $319,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-14 Listed $329,000 MLSU
• 2008-11-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2008-05-20 Listed $169,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,632 · +322.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.