17932 Villa Creek Dr

Tampa, FL 33647

$167,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · Built 2001 · Condo · Pending · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,902/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax + insurance: −$305
• HOA: −$721
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-400/mo
• Annual: $-4,799/yr
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.26%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $46,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $167k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (42.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary School (math 63% / reading 66%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 489 students, 46% FRL); Benito Middle School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B, #140 of 571 statewide, top 25%, 1,017 students, 47% FRL); Wharton High School (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,289 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 493 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?