33004 N Ivy Bend Rd

Laurie, MO 65078

$164,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1972 · Other · Active · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-203/mo
• Annual: $-2,431/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (40.8% below list).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#598 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Morgan County R-I (rural): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #173 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.0% in Laurie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.