33004 N Ivy Bend Rd · Stover, MO 65078

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Other public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1972 0.34 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom second tier Lake Home! Stunning Lake views year round. Home offers a bright living room where you can sit and enjoy your stunning views of the Lake of the Ozarks. Convenient one level living and eat in Kitchen. Comfortable size bedrooms with a large primary bedroom and bathroom for perfect amount of privacy. No HOA!

Key facts

• Lake views
• Eat in kitchen
• One level living

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• EAT IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (40.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#473 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Morgan County R-I (rural): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #173 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Morgan County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $97,615 (40.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $43,347
• Equity at exit: $112,948

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $135,607
• Equity at exit: $213,363

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65078

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,233

Max offer price $129,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-156	+0% $-203	+5% $-249	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-241	+0% $-203	+5% $-164	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-120	-0.5pp $-161	base $-203	+0.5pp $-245	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $164,900 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom second tier Lake Home! Stunning Lake views year round. Home offers a bright living room where you can sit and enjoy your stunning views of the Lake of the Ozarks. Convenient one level living with an eat in Kitchen. Comfortable size bedrooms with a large primary bedroom and bathroom for the perfect amount of privacy. No HOA!

16. 2026-05-02
    price $164,900 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom second tier Lake Home! Stunning Lake views year round. Home offers a bright living room where you can sit and enjoy your stunning views of the Lake of the Ozarks. Convenient one level living with an eat in Kitchen. Comfortable size bedrooms with a large primary bedroom and bathroom for the perfect amount of privacy. No HOA!

17. 2026-02-05
    listed $175,000 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom second tier Lake Home! Stunning Lake views year round. Home offers a bright living room where you can sit and enjoy your stunning views of the Lake of the Ozarks. Convenient one level living and eat in Kitchen. Comfortable size bedrooms with a large primary bedroom and bathroom for perfect amount of privacy. No HOA!

18. 2026-02-05
    listed $175,000 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom second tier Lake Home! Stunning Lake views year round. Home offers a bright living room where you can sit and enjoy your stunning views of the Lake of the Ozarks. Convenient one level living and eat in Kitchen. Comfortable size bedrooms with a large primary bedroom and bathroom for perfect amount of privacy. No HOA!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,116/yr (+$93/mo · 230.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$937
• − Management: −$937
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$5,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,321
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,188
• Composite: 32.47/100
• National rank: #5714
• State rank: #173 of 324 in MO

Livability — Stover

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #473
• US rank: #18738

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,716

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,779 people
• By 2030: 17,891 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 16,227 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 14,735 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 11,433 · -39.1%
• By 2100: 7,717 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.7) · D 19.7% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -59.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.7 2020: R+58.2 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+34.1 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.88%
• Current HPI: 164.4454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $164,900 JCMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $164,900 LOBR
• 2026-02-05 Listed $175,000 LOBR
• 2026-02-05 Listed $175,000 JCMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.