515 Vailtown Rd

Liberty, PA 16930

$132,500D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,082/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-625/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $37,100

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $132k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-625/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (18.3% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $108k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($916 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#659 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Southern Tioga SD (rural): math 25% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #421 of 539 in PA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty El Sch (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,518 statewide, top 68%, 174 students, 53% FRL); North Penn-Liberty Jshs (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #265 of 437 statewide, top 63%, 238 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 36% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tioga County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $132k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.