515 Vailtown Rd · Liberty, PA 16930

$132,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1972 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Your next chapter begins here on Vailtown Rd. This cozy 1 story Ranch is on 1 acre with a quiet neighborhood. There is privacy all around you with the potential of more, with 1 acre lot next door is also for sale. It offers central air, generator and public sewer. Laundry room, 3/4 bathroom with a room that was a bedroom with a half bathroom. With a little construction could be again. Conveniently located between Mansfield and Williamsport. This Affordable Home is a must see! Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Laundry room
• 1 acre

Tags

• 1 ACRE
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CENTRAL AIR
• GENERATOR
• PUBLIC SEWER
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: Penn Oak Realty Mansfield; Listing agent: Virginia Chamberlain

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Located on a 1-acre lot
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roof; Full basement
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Vinyl siding

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced-air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-625/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#659 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Southern Tioga SD (rural): math 25% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #421 of 539 in PA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty El Sch (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,518 statewide, top 68%, 174 students, 53% FRL); North Penn-Liberty Jshs (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #265 of 437 statewide, top 63%, 238 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 36% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($916 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $132k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $108,208 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $12,632
• Equity at exit: $59,554

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $49,683
• Equity at exit: $91,761

Cash invested: $37,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16930

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,883/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,148

Max offer price $123,297

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-15	+0% $-52	+5% $-90	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-95	+0% $-52	+5% $-9	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-18	base $-52	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,125
• Closing costs: $3,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $132,500 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   remarks 509-char remark
3. 2026-06-21
   listed $132,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,883 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$105/yr (+$9/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,422
• − Property taxes: −$1,883
• − Insurance: −$662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$3,855
• Taxable loss: −$2,914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$699
• After-tax cash flow: $74/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Tioga SD
• NCES district ID: 4222370
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,260
• Composite: 29.72/100
• National rank: #6451
• State rank: #421 of 539 in PA

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #6444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,139
• Population (ZIP): 1,202

Population outlook (Tioga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,253 people
• By 2030: 38,795 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 35,376 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 32,081 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 24,341 · -39.5%
• By 2100: 17,180 · -57.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tioga

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.6% · R 75.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+51.2 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+34.8 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Current HPI: 248.8152
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+268.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $132,500 NMPA
• 1992-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,883 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.