4455 Trail Hollow Rd

Cosby, TN 37722

$229,000D+

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,391/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-240/mo
• Annual: $-2,883/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (39.3% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocke County (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #112 of 139 in TN (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smoky Mountain Elementary (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #369 of 952 statewide, top 42%, 178 students, 0% FRL); Cosby High School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 326 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 71% district-wide (71 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cocke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cocke County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $229k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Cosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.