421 Caddy St

Pineville, NC 29715

$269,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$210
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-118/mo
• Annual: $-1,415/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (20.1% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#406 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• York 04 (suburban): math 65% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #1 of 80 in SC (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Nation Ford High (math 74% / reading 94%, grade A, #13 of 196 statewide, top 7%, 1,877 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 68% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the York 04 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,550 units permitted in York County in 2024 (350 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $269k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in Pineville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.