31420 Pratola Serra Cir

Plum Grove, TX 77336

$205,990D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,010/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax + insurance: −$307
• HOA: −$183
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $133/mo
• Annual: $1,590/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $51,544

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (2.4% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (2.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.