31420 Pratola Serra Cir · Plum Grove, TX 77336

$205,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $183/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by KRJ Management, Inc.; Annual association fee; Playground on site

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range and oven; Gas range and gas oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $205,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $184,086.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (2.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $200,972 (2.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,086
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31408 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	1mo	$183,990	$126	99
31418 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$189,990	$131	98
31406 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$175,840	$121	98
934 Capracotta Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	1mo	$244,990	$168	95
903 Coperchiata Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	1mo	$253,990	$180	89
939 Pertuso Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,531 (+5%)	1mo	$165,790	$108	78
933 Pertuso Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+5%)	1mo	$143,340	$93	77
929 Capracotta Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$163,990	$99	70
905 Coperchiata Cir	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$189,990	$115	67
914 Capracotta Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+13%)	1mo	$225,690	$136	66
31418 Casacalenda Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$169,990	$103	64
31504 Olivella Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	1mo	$249,990	$192	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,248
• Equity at exit: $27,448

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,056
• Equity at exit: $15,916

Cash invested: $51,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,761/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $184,086

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $196	+0% $133	+5% $69	+10% $5
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $53	+0% $133	+5% $212	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $179	base $133	+0.5pp $85	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,022
• Closing costs: $5,523
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	3d	1	0.04mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	26d	1	0.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $205,990 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,990 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,990 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,990 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $205,990 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $205,990 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $205,990 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-05-22
   price $205,990 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

9. 2026-05-21
   listed $225,990 Active 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

10. 2026-05-21
    listed $205,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,312
• − Property taxes: −$2,761
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$5,355
• Taxable loss: −$1,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$309
• After-tax cash flow: $1,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 21 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers
• Both Add a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $205,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Listed $225,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Listed $205,990 HARMLS