4403 Wagon Wheel Cir

Forest Grove, OR 97116

$199,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 251 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,972/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $314/mo
• Annual: $3,766/yr
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.3% below list).
• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#55 in OR, #1,748 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D, amenities D-.
• Forest Grove SD 15 (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #111 of 183 in OR (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,224 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $200k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.5% in Forest Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.