4403 Wagon Wheel Cir · Forest Grove, OR 97116

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 251 Days on market

Built 1994 $154/sqft · 13% above area Est $177k · 13% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated in the heart of a quiet cul-de-sac within a desirable 55+ community. Designed for comfort and ease of living, this home offers a spacious floor plan with generous living areas, a functional kitchen, and a primary suite complete with its own private bathroom.Major updates have already been taken care of for you—brand-new plumbing, a new furnace, heat pump, and hot water heater ensure efficiency, reliability, and peace of mind for years to come. Whether you’re enjoying cozy evenings indoors or entertaining guests, this home is ready to meet your lifestyle needs.The cul-de-sac location offers extra privacy and reduced traffic, while the community setting provides a welcoming atmosphere with the added security and camaraderie of a 55-and-over neighborhood. With three bedrooms, you’ll have plenty of space for hobbies, an office, or visiting guests.If you’re looking for a move-in ready home with modern updates and a low-maintenance lifestyle in a friendly, established community, this property is the perfect fit. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac location
• New furnace
• Heat pump

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• BRAND-NEW PLUMBING
• NEW FURNACE
• HEAT PUMP
• HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.5% in Forest Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#55 in OR, #1,748 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D, amenities D-.
• Forest Grove SD 15 (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #111 of 183 in OR (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,224 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $200k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,250
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 12.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1509 Centennial Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-2%)	0mo	$175,000	$138	86
1300 Pioneer Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+0%)	12mo	$215,000	$165	85
1402 Pioneer Way	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (-2%)	4mo	$189,000	$149	83
1502 Frontier Cir	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,304 (+1%)	12mo	$192,000	$147	81
4413 Settlers Loop	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,304 (+1%)	13mo	$200,000	$153	80
4402 Wagon Wheel Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+2%)	23mo	$179,000	$136	77
1209 Mountain View Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+4%)	21mo	$315,000	$233	64
1302 Pioneer Way	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+15%)	3mo	$215,000	$144	63
4310 Frontier Way	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-11%)	13mo	$164,500	$143	62
1404 Frontier Way	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	16mo	$240,000	$167	61
1302 Mountain View Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+12%)	23mo	$237,000	$163	54
1503 Pioneer Cir	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,482 (+14%)	21mo	$215,500	$145	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,240
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,705
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97116

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,352/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 S Nectarine St Cornelius, OR	3.0	2.0	1114	$2,295	$2.06	20d	1	0.20mi
4204 Pacific Ave Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	1d	1	0.49mi
4300 Pacific Ave Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,645	$1.73	1d	5	0.51mi
184 S 5th Ave Unit 164 Cornelius, OR	2.0	1.5	1114	$1,795	$1.61	14d	1	0.58mi
3802 Pacific Ave Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$2,035	$2.15	1d	12	0.67mi
101 N 7th Ave Apt D Cornelius, OR	2.0	1.5	936	$1,545	$1.65	14d	1	0.77mi
101 N 7th Ave Unit C Cornelius, OR	2.0	1.5	936	$1,499	$1.60	21d	1	0.77mi
100 N 7th Ave Unit A Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,595	$1.57	20d	1	0.78mi
100 N 7th Ave Apt B Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,599	$1.58	14d	1	0.78mi
1917 Poplar Pl Forest Grove, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$2,345	$2.52	1d	18	0.79mi
120 N 7th Ave Unit D Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,699	$1.67	43d	1	0.79mi
110 N 7th Ave Apt C Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,749	$1.72	43d	1	0.79mi
110 N 7th Ave Apt A Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,609	$1.59	7d	1	0.79mi
299 N 5th Pl Cornelius, OR	2.0	2.0	956	$1,900	$1.99	43d	1	0.80mi
3404 19th Ave #215 Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	2d	1	0.86mi
2838 19th Ave Forest Grove, OR	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	1d	1	1.22mi
2840 19th Ave Unit 7 Forest Grove, OR	3.0	2.5	1250	$2,500	$2.00	1d	1	1.23mi
2095 S Heather St Cornelius, OR	3.0	2.5	1705	$2,695	$1.58	10d	1	1.26mi
2825 Pacific Ave Apt E Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	1.32mi
2737 Maywood Dr Forest Grove, OR	2.0	1.0	950	$2,095	$2.21	43d	1	1.43mi
2501 Carson Loop Forest Grove, OR	3.0	2.5	1617	$2,095	$1.30	1d	1	1.45mi
1307 Elm St Forest Grove, OR	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,495	$2.17	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $199,900 Pending 251 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 249 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 245 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 244 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 243 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,900 Active 240 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 239 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 238 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 237 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 236 DOM
12. 2026-04-30
    price $199,900 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated in the heart of a quiet cul-de-sac within a desirable 55+ community. Designed for comfort and ease of living, this home offers a spacious floor plan with generous living areas, a functional kitchen, and a primary suite complete with its own private bathroom.Major updates have already been taken care of for you—brand-new plumbing, a new furnace, heat pump, and hot water heater ensure efficiency, reliability, and peace of mind for years to come. Whether you’re enjoying cozy evenings indoors or entertaining guests, this home is ready to meet your lifestyle needs.The cul-de-sac location offers extra privacy and reduced traffic, while the community setting provides a welcoming atmosphere with the added security and camaraderie of a 55-and-over neighborhood. With three bedrooms, you’ll have plenty of space for hobbies, an office, or visiting guests.If you’re looking for a move-in ready home with modern updates and a low-maintenance lifestyle in a friendly, established community, this property is the perfect fit. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

13. 2026-03-02
    status Active 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated in the heart of a quiet cul-de-sac within a desirable 55+ community. Designed for comfort and ease of living, this home offers a spacious floor plan with generous living areas, a functional kitchen, and a primary suite complete with its own private bathroom.Major updates have already been taken care of for you—brand-new plumbing, a new furnace, heat pump, and hot water heater ensure efficiency, reliability, and peace of mind for years to come. Whether you’re enjoying cozy evenings indoors or entertaining guests, this home is ready to meet your lifestyle needs.The cul-de-sac location offers extra privacy and reduced traffic, while the community setting provides a welcoming atmosphere with the added security and camaraderie of a 55-and-over neighborhood. With three bedrooms, you’ll have plenty of space for hobbies, an office, or visiting guests.If you’re looking for a move-in ready home with modern updates and a low-maintenance lifestyle in a friendly, established community, this property is the perfect fit. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

14. 2025-11-01
    price $215,000 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated in the heart of a quiet cul-de-sac within a desirable 55+ community. Designed for comfort and ease of living, this home offers a spacious floor plan with generous living areas, a functional kitchen, and a primary suite complete with its own private bathroom.Major updates have already been taken care of for you—brand-new plumbing, a new furnace, heat pump, and hot water heater ensure efficiency, reliability, and peace of mind for years to come. Whether you’re enjoying cozy evenings indoors or entertaining guests, this home is ready to meet your lifestyle needs.The cul-de-sac location offers extra privacy and reduced traffic, while the community setting provides a welcoming atmosphere with the added security and camaraderie of a 55-and-over neighborhood. With three bedrooms, you’ll have plenty of space for hobbies, an office, or visiting guests.If you’re looking for a move-in ready home with modern updates and a low-maintenance lifestyle in a friendly, established community, this property is the perfect fit. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

15. 2025-09-24
    listed $225,000 Active 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated in the heart of a quiet cul-de-sac within a desirable 55+ community. Designed for comfort and ease of living, this home offers a spacious floor plan with generous living areas, a functional kitchen, and a primary suite complete with its own private bathroom.Major updates have already been taken care of for you—brand-new plumbing, a new furnace, heat pump, and hot water heater ensure efficiency, reliability, and peace of mind for years to come. Whether you’re enjoying cozy evenings indoors or entertaining guests, this home is ready to meet your lifestyle needs.The cul-de-sac location offers extra privacy and reduced traffic, while the community setting provides a welcoming atmosphere with the added security and camaraderie of a 55-and-over neighborhood. With three bedrooms, you’ll have plenty of space for hobbies, an office, or visiting guests.If you’re looking for a move-in ready home with modern updates and a low-maintenance lifestyle in a friendly, established community, this property is the perfect fit. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

16. 2005-01-28
    soldstatus $58,000 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    3bedrm,2bath,dbl-wide in 55+ park on low maintenance cul-de-sac lot,covered deck,beautiful condition with upgraded appliances,newer carpet & pergo floors, nice open floor plan,attached tool shed.

17. 2005-01-12
    historical 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    3bedrm,2bath,dbl-wide in 55+ park on low maintenance cul-de-sac lot,covered deck,beautiful condition with upgraded appliances,newer carpet & pergo floors, nice open floor plan,attached tool shed.

18. 2004-08-16
    listed $59,900 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    3bedrm,2bath,dbl-wide in 55+ park on low maintenance cul-de-sac lot,covered deck,beautiful condition with upgraded appliances,newer carpet & pergo floors, nice open floor plan,attached tool shed.

19. 2000-09-18
    soldstatus $64,000
20. 2000-07-20
    listed $68,000
21. 1993-04-22
    soldstatus $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,352 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$587/yr (+$49/mo · 43.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,352
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$124
• After-tax cash flow: $3,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forest Grove SD 15
• NCES district ID: 4105160
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,159
• Composite: 36.31/100
• National rank: #9395
• State rank: #111 of 183 in OR

Livability — Forest Grove

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #1748

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest Grove, OR
• County: Washington County · 583,254 people
• City population: 29,800
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,800
• Household income: $92,613
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1124.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 674,042 people
• By 2030: 721,804 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 812,732 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 895,143 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 1,058,806 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 1,131,692 · +67.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.0) · D 65.3% · R 31.3% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.1pp · 2024: 34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.0 2020: D+34.6 2016: D+26.7 2012: D+17.5 2008: D+22.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -440.45%
• Current HPI: 286.6018
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.02%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+419.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $199,900 RMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $215,000 RMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $225,000 RMLS
• 2005-01-28 Sold (MLS) $58,000 RMLS
• 2005-01-12 Delisted — RMLS
• 2004-08-16 Listed $59,900 RMLS
• 2000-09-18 Sold (MLS) $64,000 RMLS
• 2000-07-20 Listed $68,000 RMLS
• 1993-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,352 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.