3231 Vineyard Ave #147

Pleasanton, CA 94566

$155,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,649/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $1,022/mo
• Annual: $12,259/yr
• Cap rate: 14.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.25%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Vintage Hills Elementary (538 students, 5% FRL); Pleasanton Middle (1,050 students, 12% FRL); Amador Valley High (2,665 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 1.4% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($191k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas
• Minor: Landscaping — Some areas of landscaping appear overgrown