3231 Vineyard Ave #147 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1972 Fair condition 1-car garage $111/sqft · 34% below area Est $243k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.8

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of updated and upgrades throughout the unit. Great location! All appliances stay! Newer central heat and A/C, newer raised panel interior doors. Great shed w/electrical! Copper piping and so much more!

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Listed 104 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 1.4% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Vintage Hills Elementary (538 students, 5% FRL); Pleasanton Middle (1,050 students, 12% FRL); Amador Valley High (2,665 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($191k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.13%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,000
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -30.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3231 Vineyard Ave #76	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-1%)	5mo	$370,000	$259	89
3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 93	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,413 (-2%)	6mo	$287,000	$203	87
3231 Vineyard Ave., #94 #94	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,340 (-7%)	3mo	$230,000	$172	83
3263 Vineyard Ave #62	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$184,500	$120	80
3263 Vineyard Ave., #97 #97	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	2mo	$216,000	$166	77
3263 Vineyard Ave. #35 #35	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	6mo	$295,000	$216	77
3263 Vineyard Ave #84 Spc 84	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-10%)	0mo	$250,000	$192	72
3263 Vineyard #68	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-10%)	5mo	$275,000	$212	67
3263 Vineyard Ave #89	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-13%)	6mo	$280,000	$224	67
3263 Vineyard Ave #125	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,578 (+10%)	10mo	$310,000	$196	67
3263 Vineyard Ave #174	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	7mo	$315,000	$197	65
3263 Vineyard #132	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	8mo	$185,000	$148	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $47,075
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $161,142
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $257,500 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $1,013

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,123	-5% $1,068	+0% $1,013	+5% $958	+10% $902
Rent	-10% $801	-5% $907	+0% $1,013	+5% $1,119	+10% $1,225
Rate	-1.0pp $1,093	-0.5pp $1,054	base $1,013	+0.5pp $971	+1.0pp $929

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3150 Half Dome Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1620	$3,800	$2.35	24d	1	0.11mi
2859 El Capitan Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1229	$3,750	$3.05	38d	1	0.23mi
50 Vintage Cir Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1115	$3,775	$3.38	0d	23	0.35mi
3499 Norton Way Unit 13 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,285	$2.54	84d	1	0.42mi
691 Palomino Dr Unit B Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1198	$3,650	$3.05	7d	1	0.50mi
749 Palomino Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,888	$1.67	44d	1	0.52mi
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	139d	1	0.52mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	116d	1	0.53mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$2,697	$3.12	0d	6	0.67mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	112d	1	0.72mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	139d	1	0.74mi
223 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1848	$4,200	$2.27	74d	1	0.78mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$3,443	$3.61	0d	12	0.84mi
3916 Promenade Way Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$4,500	$3.09	32d	1	0.86mi
3956 Promenade Way Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1103	$3,800	$3.45	77d	1	0.90mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	120d	1	0.92mi
271 Kottinger Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	1.0	1026	$3,900	$3.80	2d	1	1.04mi
4141 Stanley Blvd Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1456	$3,850	$2.64	74d	1	1.11mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	97d	1	1.24mi
4120 Cristobal Way Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$4,750	$3.38	10d	1	1.25mi
4678 Whiting St Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,200	$3.38	90d	1	1.36mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed upon approvalSenior communityClubhouseCommunity poolCommunity spaPark name: THE HACIENDA

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garageCarportAwning over car1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)Double wide
• Construction: Vinyl sidingCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: PatioShed(s)Close to clubhouseLevel, rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas range / cooktopMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandTile countersPantryUpdated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: LaminateLinoleumTileCarpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bath with stall shower and tileOther bath with shower over tub and tileUpdated baths
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: PantryUpdated kitchenDining areaKitchen/family comboWindow coveringsStorage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer220 volt outletGas water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $160,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $170,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $170,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $170,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $170,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $170,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $170,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $170,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    status $170,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    statusdays on market $170,000 Pending 85 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 83 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 82 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $170,000 Active 81 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $170,000 Active 80 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $170,000 Active 79 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $170,000 Active 78 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $170,000 Active 77 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $170,000 Active 76 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $170,000 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $170,000 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $170,000 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $170,000 Active 72 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $170,000 Active 71 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $170,000 Active 70 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $170,000 Active 69 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $170,000 Active 68 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $170,000 Active 67 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $170,000 Active 66 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $170,000 Active 65 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $180,000 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $180,000 Active 63 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $180,000 Active 62 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $180,000 Active 61 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 60 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $180,000 Active 58 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 57 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 56 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 55 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 51 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 50 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $180,000 Active 49 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,574
• − Management: −$2,574
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $10,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,452
• After-tax cash flow: $9,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This mobile home is move-in ready with a fresh exterior and interior, but some minor repairs and maintenance are needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas
• Minor Landscaping — Some areas of landscaping appear overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Vintage Hills Elementary Middle Pleasanton Middle High Amador Valley High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

A Composite livability gradescore 84/100

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,928,884 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed upon approvalSenior communityClubhouseCommunity poolCommunity spaPark name: THE HACIENDA

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garageCarportAwning over car1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)Double wide
• Construction: Vinyl sidingCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: PatioShed(s)Close to clubhouseLevel, rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas range / cooktopMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandTile countersPantryUpdated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: LaminateLinoleumTileCarpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bath with stall shower and tileOther bath with shower over tub and tileUpdated baths
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: PantryUpdated kitchenDining areaKitchen/family comboWindow coveringsStorage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer220 volt outletGas water heater

Price history

+44.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-04-10 Sold (MLS) $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-03-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-03-08 Listed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $107 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.