3231 Vineyard Ave #147 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $292k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of updated and upgrades throughout the unit. Great location! All appliances stay! Newer central heat and A/C, newer raised panel interior doors. Great shed w/electrical! Copper piping and so much more!

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: THE HACIENDA; Senior community; Community clubhouse, pool, and spa; Pets allowed upon approval

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Carport with awning (1 covered space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile home) located in park; Double wide; Main entry at street level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Patio; Shed(s); Close to clubhouse; Level, rectangular site; Community storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Tile counters; Pantry; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower, tile, and updated finishes; Other bathroom(s) with shower over tub, tile, and updated finishes
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Updated kitchen; Dining area; Kitchen/family combo; Window coverings; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; 220-volt outlet; Dryer included; Washer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $180k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.07%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3231 Vineyard Ave #76	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-1%)	2mo	$370,000	$259	92
3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 93	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,413 (-2%)	3mo	$287,000	$203	90
3231 Vineyard Ave., #94 #94	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,340 (-7%)	0mo	$230,000	$172	86
3263 Vineyard Ave #178	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$238,000	$165	80
3263 Vineyard Ave. #35 #35	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	3mo	$295,000	$216	80
3231 Vineyard Ave #132	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-13%)	7mo	$159,000	$127	70
3263 Vineyard #68	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-10%)	2mo	$275,000	$212	70
3263 Vineyard Ave #89	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-13%)	3mo	$280,000	$224	70
3263 Vineyard Ave #125	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,578 (+10%)	7mo	$310,000	$196	69
3263 Vineyard Ave #174	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	4mo	$315,000	$197	68
3263 Vineyard #132	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	5mo	$185,000	$148	66
3263 Vineyard Ave #42	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (+10%)	9mo	$402,000	$253	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $75,550
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $234,162
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $1,473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,598	-5% $1,535	+0% $1,473	+5% $1,411	+10% $1,349
Rent	-10% $1,201	-5% $1,337	+0% $1,473	+5% $1,609	+10% $1,745
Rate	-1.0pp $1,564	-0.5pp $1,519	base $1,473	+0.5pp $1,427	+1.0pp $1,379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	44d	1	0.52mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	21d	1	0.53mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$2,940	$3.40	0d	14	0.67mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	17d	1	0.72mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	44d	1	0.74mi
223 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1848	$4,800	$2.60	4d	1	0.78mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	829	$3,414	$4.12	0d	6	0.84mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	25d	1	0.92mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	2d	1	1.24mi
4678 Whiting St Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,500	$3.58	25d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $180,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 523-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $180,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,302
• − Management: −$3,302
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $15,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,780
• After-tax cash flow: $13,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+44.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-04-10 Sold (MLS) $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-03-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-03-08 Listed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $107 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.