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3231 Vineyard Ave #147
B+ Composite 78.45
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +30.0/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • 1% rule +10.0/10.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • Schools +7.3/10.0
  • Livability +4.2/5.0
  • Rent growth +4.0/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Condition / age +2.2/5.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -6.8

$155,000

3231 Vineyard Ave #147 · Pleasanton, CA 94566
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 150 Days on market
Manufactured home Built 1972 Fair condition 1-car garage $108/sqft · 38% below area Est $250k · 38% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of updated and upgrades throughout the unit. Great location! All appliances stay! Newer central heat and A/C, newer raised panel interior doors. Great shed w/electrical! Copper piping and so much more!

Key facts

  • Garage
  • Community pool
  • Listed 149 days

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
  • Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 1.4% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
  • Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
  • Zoned schools: Vintage Hills Elementary (538 students, 5% FRL); Pleasanton Middle (1,050 students, 12% FRL); Amador Valley High (2,665 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($191k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
  • Current owner paid $120k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
  3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.71% ✓
Cap rate
14.20%
Cash-on-cash
28.25%
DSCR
2.26
GRM
4.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$250,000
List price
$155,000
Delta
-38.00%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
17 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3263 Vineyard Ave #165 #165 0.16mi 2/2.0 1,440 (0%) 0mo $75,000 — 92
3231 Vineyard Ave #76 0.02mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,431 (-1%) 6mo $370,000 $259 88
3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 93 0.11mi 2/2.0 1,413 (-2%) 7mo $287,000 $203 86
3231 Vineyard Ave., #94 #94 0.05mi 2/2.0 1,340 (-7%) 5mo $230,000 $172 82
3263 Vineyard Ave #62 0.16mi 2/2.0 1,536 (+7%) 3mo $184,500 $120 78
3263 Vineyard Ave., #97 #97 0.10mi 2/2.0 1,300 (-10%) 4mo $216,000 $166 76
3263 Vineyard Ave. #35 #35 0.19mi 2/2.0 1,368 (-5%) 8mo $295,000 $216 76
3231 Vineyard Ave #130 0.11mi 2/2.0 1,620 (+12%) 1mo $368,000 $227 73
3263 Vineyard Ave #84 Spc 84 0.14mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,300 (-10%) 2mo $250,000 $192 70
3263 Vineyard #68 0.16mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,300 (-10%) 7mo $275,000 $212 66
3263 Vineyard Ave #89 0.12mi 2/2.0 1,250 (-13%) 8mo $280,000 $224 66
3263 Vineyard Ave #174 0.11mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,600 (+11%) 8mo $315,000 $197 64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
25.9%
Equity multiple
2.11×
Total profit
$48,337
Equity at exit
$23,111
10-year hold
IRR
35.4%
Equity multiple
4.74×
Total profit
$162,503
Equity at exit
$13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
14 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply
14.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$255,000 ($181/sqft)
Median days on market
88 d
This list price
14% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-4.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 94566

Rents YoY
6.0%
Active inventory
284
Price-to-rent
4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,649 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$813
Tax est. 1.5%
−$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
Insurance
−$65
HOA
−$0
Lot rent leased land?
−$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$556
Net cashflow
$1,022

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356
Max offer price $155,000
Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $1,129 -5% $1,075 +0% $1,022 +5% $968 +10% $914
Rent -10% $812 -5% $917 +0% $1,022 +5% $1,126 +10% $1,231
Rate -1.0pp $1,100 -0.5pp $1,061 base $1,022 +0.5pp $981 +1.0pp $941

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$38,750
Closing costs
$4,650
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 29 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3150 Half Dome Dr Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.5 1620 $3,500 $2.16 45d 1 0.11mi
2859 El Capitan Dr Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.0 1229 $3,750 $3.05 83d 1 0.23mi
3375 Norton Way Apt 8 Pleasanton, CA 2.0 1.5 1120 $2,995 $2.67 6d 1 0.31mi
543 Tawny Dr Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.5 1540 $3,500 $2.27 3d 1 0.32mi
50 Vintage Cir Pleasanton, CA 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.5 1115 $3,712 $3.33 0d 17 0.35mi
3499 Norton Way Unit 13 Pleasanton, CA 2.0 1.0 900 $2,285 $2.54 129d 1 0.42mi
691 Palomino Dr Unit B Pleasanton, CA 2.0 2.0 1198 $3,650 $3.05 53d 1 0.50mi
749 Palomino Dr Pleasanton, CA 2.0 2.0 1130 $1,888 $1.67 90d 1 0.52mi
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA 2.0 1.5 1130 $3,250 $2.88 184d 1 0.52mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA 2.0 1.5 1080 $2,850 $2.64 161d 1 0.53mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA 1.0–3.0 1.0–1.5 863 $2,826 $3.27 0d 5 0.67mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA 2.0 2.0 900 $2,700 $3.00 157d 1 0.72mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA 2.0 2.5 1221 $3,100 $2.54 184d 1 0.74mi
3727 Reflections Dr Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.0 1075 $3,800 $3.53 3d 1 0.77mi
223 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.5 1848 $4,200 $2.27 119d 1 0.78mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 969 $3,392 $3.50 0d 9 0.84mi
3916 Promenade Way Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.0 1458 $4,500 $3.09 77d 1 0.86mi
3956 Promenade Way Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.0 1103 $3,800 $3.45 122d 1 0.90mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.0 1300 $3,850 $2.96 165d 1 0.92mi
4237 Garibaldi Pl Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.5 1666 $4,095 $2.46 33d 1 1.00mi
4237 Garibaldi Pl Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.5 1666 $4,095 $2.46 21d 1 1.00mi
271 Kottinger Dr Pleasanton, CA 3.0 1.0 1226 $3,700 $3.02 1d 1 1.04mi
4141 Stanley Blvd Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.5 1456 $3,850 $2.64 119d 1 1.11mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA 2.0 2.0 1369 $3,600 $2.63 142d 1 1.24mi
4120 Cristobal Way Unit Na Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.0 1404 $4,750 $3.38 45d 1 1.25mi
4120 Cristobal Way Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.0 1404 $4,750 $3.38 55d 1 1.25mi
1558 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA 3.0 3.0 1609 $4,000 $2.49 10d 1 1.29mi
4678 Whiting St Pleasanton, CA 3.0 2.0 1538 $5,200 $3.38 135d 1 1.36mi
635 Saint John St Pleasanton, CA 3.0 1.5 1400 $2,975 $2.12 35d 1 1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Pets allowed upon approvalSenior communityClubhouseCommunity poolCommunity spaPark name: THE HACIENDA

Exterior

Parking
1-car garageCarportAwning over car1 covered parking space
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Manufactured in park (mobile home)Double wide
Construction
Vinyl sidingCrawl space foundation
Exterior features
PatioShed(s)Close to clubhouseLevel, rectangular lot

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherGas range / cooktopMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandTile countersPantryUpdated kitchen
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms (street level)
Flooring
LaminateLinoleumTileCarpet
Bathrooms
2 full bathroomsPrimary bath with stall shower and tileOther bath with shower over tub and tileUpdated baths
Heating & cooling
Forced air heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
Interior features
PantryUpdated kitchenDining areaKitchen/family comboWindow coveringsStorage
Laundry & utility
Laundry room with washer and dryer220 volt outletGas water heater

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 150 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 149 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $155,000 Active 148 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 147 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 146 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    price $155,000 Active 144 DOM
  7. 2026-11-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 144 DOM
  8. 2026-11-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 143 DOM
  9. 2026-10-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 142 DOM
  10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 141 DOM
  11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $160,000 Active 140 DOM
  12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $160,000 Active 139 DOM
  13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $160,000 Active 138 DOM
  14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $160,000 Active 137 DOM
  15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $160,000 Active 136 DOM
  16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $160,000 Active 135 DOM
  17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $160,000 Active 134 DOM
  18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $160,000 Active 133 DOM
  19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $160,000 Active 132 DOM
  20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $160,000 Active 131 DOM
  21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $160,000 Active 130 DOM
  22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
  23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $160,000 Active 128 DOM
  24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $160,000 Active 127 DOM
  25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $160,000 Active 126 DOM
  26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $160,000 Active 125 DOM
  27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $160,000 Active 124 DOM
  28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $160,000 Active 123 DOM
  29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $160,000 Active 122 DOM
  30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $160,000 Active 121 DOM
  31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 120 DOM
  32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 119 DOM
  33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 118 DOM
  34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM
  35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 116 DOM
  36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 115 DOM
  37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 114 DOM
  38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 113 DOM
  39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 112 DOM
  40. 2026-10-01
    remarks 654-char remark
  41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
  42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
  43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $160,000 Active 109 DOM
  44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $160,000 Active 108 DOM
  45. 2026-09-26
    days on market $160,000 Active 107 DOM
  46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $160,000 Active 106 DOM
  47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $160,000 Active 105 DOM
  48. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $160,000 Active 104 DOM
  49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $170,000 Active 103 DOM
  50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $170,000 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$31,788
− Mortgage interest
−$8,682
− Property taxes
−$2,325
− Insurance
−$775
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,543
− Management
−$2,543
− Depreciation
−$4,509
Taxable income
$10,411
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$2,499
After-tax cash flow
$9,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This mobile home is move-in ready with a fresh exterior and interior, but some minor repairs and maintenance are needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

  • Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas
  • Minor Landscaping — Some areas of landscaping appear overgrown

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
  • Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Vintage Hills Elementary Middle Pleasanton Middle High Amador Valley High

Schools (NCES district)

District
Pleasanton Unified
NCES district ID
0600020
Math proficiency
75% ▼ -1.00%
Reading proficiency
79% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income
$123,770
Composite
73.12/100
National rank
#351
State rank
#43 of 1400 in CA
A Composite livability gradescore 84/100

Livability — Pleasanton

Score
84/100
State rank
#17
US rank
#655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Pleasanton, CA
County
Alameda County · 1,928,884 people
City population
78,550
Metro
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
Population (ZIP)
44,222
Household income
$191,155
Rent vs Own
29.4% rent · 70.6% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,928,884 people
By 2030
2,069,146 · +7.3%
By 2040
2,338,405 · +21.2%
By 2050
2,586,608 · +34.1%
By 2075
3,061,911 · +58.7%
By 2100
3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity
White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 9%
Languages at home
59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

2024 margin
Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
2008→2024 swing
-5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
All cycles
2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

+44.0% since first listed
5 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-09 Listed $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
  • 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
  • 2007-04-10 Sold (MLS) $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
  • 2007-03-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
  • 2007-03-08 Listed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $107 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…