70740 Fern Hill Rd

Rainier, OR 97048

$199,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1968 · Manufactured · Active · 769 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $436/mo
• Annual: $5,231/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 769 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#206 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Rainier SD 13 (rural): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #124 of 183 in OR (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $200k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.4% in Rainier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 769 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.