70740 Fern Hill Rd · Rainier, OR 97048

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 769 Days on market

Built 1968 1.22 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to your own oasis! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home sits on a spacious 1.22 acre lot and includes an enclosed patio for your enjoyment. Property has a large shop/shed/RV/lean to combo building plus an additional shed for projects and storage. And can we talk about the yard? Pride of ownership abounds throughout the yard that has been carefully and thoughtfully manicured. You'll love the terraced garden, large level lawn area, and peacefully tucked away sitting spaces scattered throughout the landscape. All of this at such a great price! (Property is in a Life Estate, please consult your Realtor to discuss what this entails, buyer to do their own due diligence). Property has a shared driveway.

Key facts

• 1.22 acre lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 769 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.4% in Rainier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#206 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Rainier SD 13 (rural): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #124 of 183 in OR (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 769 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $200k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 769 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,687
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $31,429
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97048

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,218/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 769 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 768 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 767 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 766 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 764 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 760 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 759 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 758 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,900 Active 755 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 754 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 753 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 752 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 751 DOM
14. 2024-05-10
    listed $199,900 Active 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    Welcome home to your own oasis! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home sits on a spacious 1.22 acre lot and includes an enclosed patio for your enjoyment. Property has a large shop/shed/RV/lean to combo building plus an additional shed for projects and storage. And can we talk about the yard? Pride of ownership abounds throughout the yard that has been carefully and thoughtfully manicured. You'll love the terraced garden, large level lawn area, and peacefully tucked away sitting spaces scattered throughout the landscape. All of this at such a great price! (Property is in a Life Estate, please consult your Realtor to discuss what this entails, buyer to do their own due diligence). Property has a shared driveway.

15. 2007-05-03
    soldstatus $80,000
16. 2007-05-01
    soldstatus $85,000 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    A diamond in the rough. Built in 200gal aquarium and an aviary included. Bring your tools and desire and the potential is almost unlimited. Koi pond in back and garden pond in front.

17. 2007-04-12
    historical 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    A diamond in the rough. Built in 200gal aquarium and an aviary included. Bring your tools and desire and the potential is almost unlimited. Koi pond in back and garden pond in front.

18. 2006-11-26
    listed $89,000 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    A diamond in the rough. Built in 200gal aquarium and an aviary included. Bring your tools and desire and the potential is almost unlimited. Koi pond in back and garden pond in front.

19. 1997-11-03
    soldstatus $68,500
20. 1997-07-30
    listed $68,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,218 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$721/yr (+$60/mo · 59.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,218
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $2,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$496
• After-tax cash flow: $4,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rainier SD 13
• NCES district ID: 4103265
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,657
• Composite: 34.58/100
• National rank: #10103
• State rank: #124 of 183 in OR

Livability — Rainier

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #13734

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,096

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,620 people
• By 2030: 48,957 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 46,860 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 44,383 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 39,333 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 34,038 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: R (+13.9) · D 41.4% · R 55.3% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.9 2020: R+10.3 2016: R+12.0 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.37%
• Current HPI: 318.1179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+191.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-10 Listed $199,900 RMLS
• 2007-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-01 Sold (MLS) $85,000 RMLS
• 2007-04-12 Delisted — RMLS
• 2006-11-26 Listed $89,000 RMLS
• 1997-11-03 Sold (MLS) $68,500 RMLS
• 1997-07-30 Listed $68,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,218 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.