2016 Vince St

Pasadena, TX 77502

$184,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,645 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,743/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$476
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-825/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-825/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (5.8% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $173k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Shaver El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 500 students, 96% FRL); Nelda Sullivan Middle (math 21% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 553 students, 94% FRL); Pasadena H S (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,221 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.