2016 Vince St · Pasadena, TX 77502

$184,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,645 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1950 6,899 sqft lot Est $299k · 38% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious longtime-owner property with excellent potential, offering a main home PLUS a separate guest house! The main home features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, a split-bedroom floor plan, large family room with brick fireplace and built-ins, formal living and dining area, spacious kitchen with sit-up breakfast bar, separate breakfast area, two driveways — including a long gated driveway plus a front double driveway with carport — and a covered patio. The guest house offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, kitchen, den, utility area + updated vinyl plank flooring in den, carpet in bedrooms, and fresh paint throughout. Recent improvements include 2024 roofs on both homes, main home central A/C replac

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Guest house
• Covered patio

Tags

• GUEST HOUSE
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• COVERED PATIO
• GATED DRIVEWAY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• RECENT IMPROVEMENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Additional parking; Two carport spaces; Electric gate
• Security: Electric gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road surface
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms on first floor); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1950
• Construction: Cement siding; Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Year built: 1950
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Garage apartment; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Pantry; Kitchen/family room layout
• Bedrooms: Six bedrooms, all on the first floor (including primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-825/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Shaver El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 500 students, 96% FRL); Nelda Sullivan Middle (math 21% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 553 students, 94% FRL); Pasadena H S (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,221 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,753 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,885
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2305 Redwinn Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,639 (-0%)	10mo	$329,000	$125	68
1606 Oaks Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,438 (-8%)	2mo	$274,500	$113	55
2102 Merle St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,378 (-10%)	20mo	$239,000	$101	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-34,212
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-34,905
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77502

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,784/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,830

Max offer price $172,753

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $184,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $184,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   remarks 687-char remark
6. 2026-06-02
   listed $184,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,784 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,784 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$4,784
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$3,880
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$931
• After-tax cash flow: $106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pasadena

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,190
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,371
• Household income: $62,500
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1285.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 37% White 12% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.12%
• Current HPI: 278.9293
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $184,900 HARMLS
• 1989-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,784 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.