4040 Saint Leonard Rd

St. Leonard, MD 20685

$409,900F

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,259/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$431
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-796/mo
• Annual: $-9,552/yr
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.32%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $114,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-796 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (34.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (44.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $226k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.8% in St. Leonard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.