4040 Saint Leonard Rd · St. Leonard, MD 20685

$409,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1987 1.00 ac lot $267/sqft · 59% above area Est $454k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in a peaceful St. Leonard setting, this beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 bath home offers a blend of privacy and comfort on a one acre lot. Modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Entertain with ease on a large deck overlooking the backyard. Need space for hobbies or cars? This property is great for that, boasting an attached 2-car garage with lots of cabinets for organization, PLUS a detached 1 car garage/shop perfect for projects or extra storage. Don't miss the huge game room which can be used for home office, or entertaining. and yes it comes with a pool table.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry attached garage with 2 garage spaces; Driveway with about 3 spaces; Total of approximately 5 parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached home; Estimated 2,700 finished square feet; Built (year source: assessor); Property condition: Very good
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck(s); 2nd garage; Gazebo; Shed; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Extra refrigerator/freezer
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; Three bedrooms on the lower level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Luxury vinyl tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Ceiling fans; Chair railings; Sound system; Walk-in closets; Wood floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-796 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (34.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (44.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (44.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.8% in St. Leonard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,923 (44.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.32%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $453,691
• List price: $409,900
• Delta: -9.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4450 Lancaster Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,591 (+4%)	2mo	$390,000	$245	64
3620 Pine Tree Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	8mo	$450,000	$298	53
4789 Calvert Dr	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,540 (+0%)	12mo	$375,000	$244	49
1650 Walnut Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-7%)	10mo	$438,000	$307	37
3650 Poplar Ct	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	15mo	$352,900	$263	36
3570 Hilltop Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-12%)	13mo	$360,000	$266	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-117,240
• Equity at exit: $61,117

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-167,862
• Equity at exit: $35,441

Cash invested: $114,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20685

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,125/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-796

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,267

Max offer price $269,284

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,475
• Closing costs: $12,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   historical Active Under Contract 584-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   listed $409,900 Active 584-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   historical $409,900 584-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,125 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,797 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: +$671/yr (+$56/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,961
• − Property taxes: −$3,125
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − Depreciation: −$11,924
• Taxable loss: −$17,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,149
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calvert County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400150
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $94,392
• Composite: 33.27/100
• National rank: #5511
• State rank: #5 of 24 in MD

Livability — St. Leonard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Leonard, MD
• Population (ZIP): 6,481

Population outlook (Calvert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,825 people
• By 2030: 96,197 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 96,954 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 94,628 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 91,576 · -3.4%
• By 2100: 83,431 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Calvert

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.5% · R 54.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+18.4 2012: R+8.2 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.36%
• Current HPI: 277.3103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $410,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $409,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $409,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,125 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.