11158 Quinlan North Lake Dr

Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$175,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,441/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$314
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-101/mo
• Annual: $-1,207/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?