11158 Quinlan North Lake Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1964 6,873 sqft lot $192/sqft · 37% below area Est $277k · 37% under · waterfront $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional Waterfront Home in Private Neighborhood. Truly a Needle-in-the Haystack. Peaceful Setting on a Private Lake and Close to Everything Minute away from the ''Freeways''. The Home was Completely Redone in 2012. Offers 2 Bedrooms with the Possibility of Third. Everything is Turn Key and Move in Ready. Don't Miss this Opportunity to Own Your Own Piece of Lakefront Heaven.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Waterfront home
• Whole-house leveling

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• PRIVATE LAKE COMMUNITY
• NEW ROOF
• WHOLE-HOUSE LEVELING
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL BOX
• FRESH PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $100

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Public sewer and septic tank options
• Home design: Residential property; Has view
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1964
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fence (back yard); Storage shed(s); Views; Lakefront waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Total 2 rooms
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit heating; Window unit cooling; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Window treatments; Window coverings; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,148 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
12. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
13. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
14. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
15. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,826
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -36.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11124 Quinlan North Lake Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	960 (+5%)	9mo	$175,000	$182	77
11091 Keystone Timber Dr	1.08mi	2/3.0	960 (+5%)	13mo	$135,000	$141	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-38,947
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-58,326
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,091/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $157,233

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-51	+0% $-101	+5% $-150	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-158	+0% $-101	+5% $-44	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-56	base $-101	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15793 Bayberry Trace Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1639	$1,705	$1.04	0d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $175,000 Active 940-char remark
16. 2025-11-13
    historical
17. 2025-04-28
    status Active
18. 2025-04-27
    historical
19. 2024-12-04
    price $199,900
20. 2024-12-04
    status Active
21. 2024-11-30
    historical
22. 2024-09-09
    price $209,000
23. 2024-07-05
    price $212,000
24. 2024-07-05
    status Active
25. 2024-06-30
    status Option Pending
26. 2024-06-14
    price $207,000
27. 2024-05-28
    listed $230,000 Active
28. 2022-08-01
    soldstatus
29. 2015-10-09
    soldstatus
30. 2015-09-30
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Exceptional Waterfront Home in Private Neighborhood. Truly a Needle-in-the Haystack. Peaceful Setting on a Private Lake and Close to Everything Minute away from the ''Freeways''. The Home was Completely Redone in 2012. Offers 2 Bedrooms with the Possibility of Third. Everything is Turn Key and Move in Ready. Don't Miss this Opportunity to Own Your Own Piece of Lakefront Heaven.

31. 2015-09-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Exceptional Waterfront Home in Private Neighborhood. Truly a Needle-in-the Haystack. Peaceful Setting on a Private Lake and Close to Everything Minute away from the ''Freeways''. The Home was Completely Redone in 2012. Offers 2 Bedrooms with the Possibility of Third. Everything is Turn Key and Move in Ready. Don't Miss this Opportunity to Own Your Own Piece of Lakefront Heaven.

32. 2015-09-01
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Exceptional Waterfront Home in Private Neighborhood. Truly a Needle-in-the Haystack. Peaceful Setting on a Private Lake and Close to Everything Minute away from the ''Freeways''. The Home was Completely Redone in 2012. Offers 2 Bedrooms with the Possibility of Third. Everything is Turn Key and Move in Ready. Don't Miss this Opportunity to Own Your Own Piece of Lakefront Heaven.

33. 2015-06-24
    price $169,000

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Exceptional Waterfront Home in Private Neighborhood. Truly a Needle-in-the Haystack. Peaceful Setting on a Private Lake and Close to Everything Minute away from the ''Freeways''. The Home was Completely Redone in 2012. Offers 2 Bedrooms with the Possibility of Third. Everything is Turn Key and Move in Ready. Don't Miss this Opportunity to Own Your Own Piece of Lakefront Heaven.

34. 2015-05-23
    listed $175,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Exceptional Waterfront Home in Private Neighborhood. Truly a Needle-in-the Haystack. Peaceful Setting on a Private Lake and Close to Everything Minute away from the ''Freeways''. The Home was Completely Redone in 2012. Offers 2 Bedrooms with the Possibility of Third. Everything is Turn Key and Move in Ready. Don't Miss this Opportunity to Own Your Own Piece of Lakefront Heaven.

35. 2015-05-16
    historical
36. 2015-04-08
    listed $188,000 Active
37. 2014-10-27
    historical
38. 2014-09-04
    price $175,000
39. 2014-07-09
    listed $200,000 Active
40. 2013-12-13
    historical
41. 2013-10-28
    listed $164,950 Active
42. 2011-10-25
    soldstatus
43. 2001-04-20
    soldstatus
44. 1995-05-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,111/yr (+$93/mo · 53.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,091
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $-193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.1% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-05 Price Changed $212,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-06-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $207,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-28 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-09-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-24 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2015-05-23 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2015-05-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-04-08 Listed $188,000 HARMLS
• 2014-10-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-09-04 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2014-07-09 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2013-12-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-10-28 Listed $164,950 HARMLS
• 2011-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,091 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.