168 Posson Hill Rd

Middleburgh, NY 12122

$150,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $99/mo
• Annual: $1,183/yr
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.40%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Middleburgh Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #409 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middleburgh Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 344 students, 54% FRL); Middleburgh Junior/Senior High School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #827 of 1,100 statewide, top 76%, 296 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.3% in Middleburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.