168 Posson Hill Rd · Middleburgh, NY 12122

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1971 1.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

FOR SALE BY OWNER 168 Posson Hill Rd Middleburgh NY 12122 Located just 4.7 miles outside the village of charming Middleburgh and 34 miles from Albany. Down the road from Cotton Hill State Forrest making this an ideal hunting retreat! On the property are two full size garages, one of which has a heating furnace for winter tinkering. Also several other out buildings, making this a great homestead as well! -3 bedrooms -1 Bath -One Level Home -Covered Front Porch and open back deck -Well Water -High speed internet with Midtel -2 Full size garages -Several outbuildings -house heated with Fuel Oil Furnace or has a spot for a propane heat stove -Propane Hot Water Heater -Paved Driveway thats c

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• High speed internet
• Paved driveway

Tags

• TWO FULL SIZE GARAGES
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN BACK DECK
• WELL WATER
• HIGH SPEED INTERNET
• PAVED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Construction: Living area approximately 1312
• Exterior features: Property sits on a 1.9-acre lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.3% in Middleburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Middleburgh Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #409 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.40%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $88,088
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $254,693
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12122

• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,339/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $141	+0% $99	+5% $56	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $35	+0% $99	+5% $163	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $137	base $99	+0.5pp $60	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $150,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,339 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,339 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,339
• − Insurance: −$1,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $1,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middleburgh Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619260
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,677
• Composite: 41.7/100
• National rank: #3412
• State rank: #409 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middleburgh

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #9180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,555

Population outlook (Schoharie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,080 people
• By 2030: 27,417 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 23,835 · -18.0%
• By 2050: 20,482 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 14,323 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 9,636 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schoharie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.5) · D 34.7% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -30.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.5 2020: R+29.0 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 86.69%
• Current HPI: 322.5162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $150,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,339 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.