4435 Lower Honoapiilani Rd #225

Napili-Honokowai, HI 96761

$195,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 641 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 258 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,877/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$1,050
• HOA: −$1,225
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-1,024/mo
• Annual: $-12,290/yr
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (71.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (71.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo; HOA is 43% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 637 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $104k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.