4435 Lower Honoapiilani Rd #225 · Napili-Honokowai, HI 96761

$195,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 641 sqft · Condo public records · 258 Days on market

Built 1979 $304/sqft · 70% below area $1225/mo HOA · 43% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet and tropical 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo in the desirable Pohailani Maui complex. This second story, garden view features an extra-large lanai with lush garden views, perfect for outdoor living. The complex offers two swimming pools, tennis courts, and acres of beautiful grounds. This unit includes one designated parking stall plus ample guest parking. Located directly across the street from the ocean and just steps from the bus stop, Kahana Gateway Plaza, and popular local spots like Hawaiian Village Coffee, Dollie’s, Capt. Jack’s, and McDonald’s. A peaceful retreat with convenience and charm—ideal for full-time living or a Maui getaway. This is a Leasehold Property that expires 12/31/2038 and lease payment is $983. Currently being rented for $3200 a month.

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Lush garden views
• Two swimming pools

Tags

• EXTRA-LARGE LANAI
• LUSH GARDEN VIEWS
• TWO SWIMMING POOLS
• TENNIS COURTS
• DESIGNATED PARKING STALL
• GUEST PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (71.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (71.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 637 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $104k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo; HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,847 (71.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $642,056
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -69.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -58.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-92,749
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -93.3%
• Equity multiple: -1.71×
• Total profit: $-147,846
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96761

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 637
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,877 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,592/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$1,225
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-1,024

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,174

Max offer price $54,847

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-914	-5% $-969	+0% $-1,024	+5% $-1,079	+10% $-1,135
Rent	-10% $-1,251	-5% $-1,138	+0% $-1,024	+5% $-910	+10% $-797
Rate	-1.0pp $-926	-0.5pp $-975	base $-1,024	+0.5pp $-1,075	+1.0pp $-1,126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Wailele Kai Ln Lahaina, HI	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1390	$3,740	$2.69	4d	8	1.13mi
3740 Lower Honoapiilani Rd Lahaina, HI	1.0	1.0	476	$2,500	$5.25	4d	2	1.19mi
3740 Lower Honoapiilani Rd Lahaina, HI	1.0	1.0	476	$2,500	$5.25	3d	2	1.19mi
3702 Lower Honoapiilani Rd Unit A-33 Lahaina, HI	1.0	1.0	607	$2,700	$4.45	44d	1	1.28mi
3676 Lower Honoapiilani Rd Unit D102 Lahaina, HI	2.0	1.0	658	$2,700	$4.10	17d	1	1.32mi
3626 Lower Honoapiilani Rd Lahaina, HI	2.0	1.0	620	$2,650	$4.27	2d	16	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,225 · $14,700/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 258 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 257 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 255 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 241 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 240 DOM
15. 2026-04-12
    price $219,000 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Quiet and tropical 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo in the desirable Pohailani Maui complex. This second story, garden view features an extra-large lanai with lush garden views, perfect for outdoor living. The complex offers two swimming pools, tennis courts, and acres of beautiful grounds. This unit includes one designated parking stall plus ample guest parking. Located directly across the street from the ocean and just steps from the bus stop, Kahana Gateway Plaza, and popular local spots like Hawaiian Village Coffee, Dollie’s, Capt. Jack’s, and McDonald’s. A peaceful retreat with convenience and charm—ideal for full-time living or a Maui getaway. This is a Leasehold Property that expires 12/31/2038 and lease payment is $983. Currently being rented for $3200 a month.

16. 2025-11-25
    price $279,000 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Quiet and tropical 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo in the desirable Pohailani Maui complex. This second story, garden view features an extra-large lanai with lush garden views, perfect for outdoor living. The complex offers two swimming pools, tennis courts, and acres of beautiful grounds. This unit includes one designated parking stall plus ample guest parking. Located directly across the street from the ocean and just steps from the bus stop, Kahana Gateway Plaza, and popular local spots like Hawaiian Village Coffee, Dollie’s, Capt. Jack’s, and McDonald’s. A peaceful retreat with convenience and charm—ideal for full-time living or a Maui getaway. This is a Leasehold Property that expires 12/31/2038 and lease payment is $983. Currently being rented for $3200 a month.

17. 2025-10-02
    listed $299,000 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Quiet and tropical 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo in the desirable Pohailani Maui complex. This second story, garden view features an extra-large lanai with lush garden views, perfect for outdoor living. The complex offers two swimming pools, tennis courts, and acres of beautiful grounds. This unit includes one designated parking stall plus ample guest parking. Located directly across the street from the ocean and just steps from the bus stop, Kahana Gateway Plaza, and popular local spots like Hawaiian Village Coffee, Dollie’s, Capt. Jack’s, and McDonald’s. A peaceful retreat with convenience and charm—ideal for full-time living or a Maui getaway. This is a Leasehold Property that expires 12/31/2038 and lease payment is $983. Currently being rented for $3200 a month.

18. 2023-09-04
    historical
19. 2023-06-22
    price $310,000
20. 2023-03-07
    status Active
21. 2023-03-05
    historical
22. 2022-12-01
    price $335,000
23. 2022-09-12
    status Active
24. 2022-09-05
    historical
25. 2022-09-05
    listed $360,000 Active
26. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus $280,000
27. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus $280,000
28. 2005-09-07
    listed $335,000
29. 2005-08-01
    soldstatus $581,900
30. 2002-04-30
    soldstatus $89,000
31. 1987-11-01
    soldstatus $81,500
32. 1986-12-18
    soldstatus $51,000
33. 1986-05-05
    soldstatus $29,100
34. 1986-05-01
    soldstatus $29,100
35. 1986-03-25
    soldstatus $29,142
36. 1983-03-01
    soldstatus $130,000
37. 1980-08-01
    soldstatus $127,500
38. 1980-05-01
    soldstatus $161,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,592 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,592 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,592
• − Insurance: −$9,003
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,762
• − Management: −$2,762
• − HOA: −$14,700
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$14,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,573
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Napili-Honokowai

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napili-Honokowai, HI
• County: Maui County · 114,195 people
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• Population (ZIP): 20,952
• Household income: $101,123
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 835.0

Population outlook (Maui County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 185,013 people
• By 2030: 194,315 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 210,917 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 226,396 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 270,475 · +46.2%
• By 2100: 316,825 · +71.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Asian 29% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 12% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maui

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.9) · D 61.9% · R 36.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 55.2pp · 2024: 25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.9 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+38.6 2012: D+50.3 2008: D+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.68%
• Current HPI: 389.2894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+35.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $219,000 RAM MLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $279,000 RAM MLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $299,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-09-04 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2023-06-22 Price Changed $310,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-03-07 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2023-03-05 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2022-12-01 Price Changed $335,000 RAM MLS
• 2022-09-12 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2022-09-05 Listed $360,000 RAM MLS
• 2022-09-05 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2005-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-14 Sold (MLS) $280,000 RAM MLS
• 2005-09-07 Listed $335,000 RAM MLS
• 2005-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $581,900 Public Records
• 2002-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1987-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $81,500 Public Records
• 1986-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1986-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $29,100 Public Records
• 1986-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,100 Public Records
• 1986-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $29,142 Public Records
• 1983-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1980-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records
• 1980-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $161,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,592 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.