5021 Wellington Ave

Mounds View, MN 55112

$85,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,213/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$530
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-159/mo
• Annual: $-1,911/yr
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.03%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $62k (27.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $62k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#44 in MN, #1,223 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F.
• Mounds View Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #30 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pike Lake Kindergarten Center (595 students, 54% FRL); Edgewood Middle School (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D+, #106 of 258 statewide, top 43%, 699 students, 54% FRL); Irondale Senior High (math 47% / reading 66%, grade C, #77 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 1,706 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 24% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Mounds View — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.