2415 Hemlock Ave #404

Ketchikan, AK 99901

$97,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 566 sqft · Built 1954 · Condo · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$531
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $128/mo
• Annual: $1,534/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $27,160

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $97k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AK, #3,743 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Ketchikan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.