2415 Hemlock Ave #404 · Ketchikan, AK 99901

$97,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 566 sqft · Condo public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1954 $531/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Call today to view this ocean view, newly remodeled one bedroom, one full bath Marine View condominium. This quiet fourth floor end unit residence enjoys new kitchen cabinetry, kitchen appliances, flooring, interior paint and it comes furnished and move-in ready. Fantastic Tongass Narrows views from both the big living room and bedroom windows. This condo offers a surprising amount of storage space that helps make it a smart choice for both seasonal or year-round living.

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• Ocean view
• Big living room

Tags

• OCEAN VIEW
• NEWLY REMODELED
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETRY
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• BIG LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Ketchikan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AK, #3,743 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,090 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-7,268
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $5,413
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99901

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $673/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$531
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
436 Main St Unit 29 Ketchikan, AK	1.0	1.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	43d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $531 · $6,372/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $97,000 Active
3. 2021-12-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $673 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$241/yr (+$20/mo · 35.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$673
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − HOA: −$6,372
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$82
• After-tax cash flow: $1,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Ketchikan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3743

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ketchikan, AK
• Population (ZIP): 13,875

Population outlook (Ketchikan Gateway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,287 people
• By 2030: 14,487 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 14,750 · +3.2%
• By 2050: 14,908 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 15,319 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 15,204 · +6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Native American 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 7% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ketchikan Gateway

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 190.039
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — SEABR
• 2026-03-20 Listed $97,000 SEABR
• 2021-12-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $673 · +25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.