3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit C-1103

Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$185,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$630
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-375/mo
• Annual: $-4,502/yr
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.69%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (29.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Curlew Creek Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 634 students, 43% FRL); Palm Harbor Middle School (math 59% / reading 57%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 1,080 students, 37% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 129d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.0% in Palm Harbor — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?