4349 Bay Meadows Ct

Arcata, CA 95521

$118,665B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,951/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$622
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $721/mo
• Annual: $8,657/yr
• Cap rate: 13.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.06%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $33,226

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $821 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#275 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Pacific Union Elementary (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #560 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 1.9% in Arcata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and cluttered
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — dated and small
• Minor: exterior siding — some wear