4349 Bay Meadows Ct · Arcata, CA 95521

$118,665

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home located in the Lazy J mobile home park. This home, with an open floor plan, with a large living room and family room features a two year old forced air heater and new carpeting. A lot of storage is available. The primary bedroom with a walk-in closet offers a private bathroom. The Kitchen features newer refrigerator, range hood and a stainless steel kitchen sink. The shed is wired and finished with drywall. ''Listing Broker and agents DO NOT guarantee the information in this MLS Listing is accurate. It is the duty of any person, buyer or entity using this MLS listing to exercise due diligence to independently verify this information. ''

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BUILT-IN STORAGE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• SHED INCLUDES POWER
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts, circuit breakers; 220 volts in laundry); Natural gas connected / available; Phone service available
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Located in a park named Lazy J (manufactured home: Sunny SB23A-3)
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Level and rolling lot with flag lot configuration; Concrete and paved road access; Rectangular lot shape

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Built-in features; Double-pane windows; Accessible entrance; Has a view; Insulation (energy efficient)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included (connections available)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 1.9% in Arcata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#275 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Pacific Union Elementary (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #560 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $821 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $116,885 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.06%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $37,062
• Equity at exit: $17,693

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $138,495
• Equity at exit: $10,260

Cash invested: $33,226 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95521

• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$148 /mo · $1,780/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,038

Max offer price $118,665

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,666
• Closing costs: $3,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $118,665 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,665 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $118,665 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-28
    listed $124,900 Active
14. 2025-07-29
    soldstatus $128,821 Closed 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Spacious home located in the Lazy J mobile home park. This home, with an open floor plan, with a large living room and family room features a two year old forced air heater and new carpeting. A lot of storage is available. The primary bedroom with a walk-in closet offers a private bathroom. The Kitchen features newer refrigerator, range hood and a stainless steel kitchen sink. The shed is wired and finished with drywall. ''Listing Broker and agents DO NOT guarantee the information in this MLS Listing is accurate. It is the duty of any person, buyer or entity using this MLS listing to exercise due diligence to independently verify this information. ''

15. 2025-06-19
    price $128,821 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Spacious home located in the Lazy J mobile home park. This home, with an open floor plan, with a large living room and family room features a two year old forced air heater and new carpeting. A lot of storage is available. The primary bedroom with a walk-in closet offers a private bathroom. The Kitchen features newer refrigerator, range hood and a stainless steel kitchen sink. The shed is wired and finished with drywall. ''Listing Broker and agents DO NOT guarantee the information in this MLS Listing is accurate. It is the duty of any person, buyer or entity using this MLS listing to exercise due diligence to independently verify this information. ''

16. 2025-05-10
    listed $143,341 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Spacious home located in the Lazy J mobile home park. This home, with an open floor plan, with a large living room and family room features a two year old forced air heater and new carpeting. A lot of storage is available. The primary bedroom with a walk-in closet offers a private bathroom. The Kitchen features newer refrigerator, range hood and a stainless steel kitchen sink. The shed is wired and finished with drywall. ''Listing Broker and agents DO NOT guarantee the information in this MLS Listing is accurate. It is the duty of any person, buyer or entity using this MLS listing to exercise due diligence to independently verify this information. ''

17. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus $122,000 Closed 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Lovely home located in a well established Senior park. Very spacious open floor plan with a large living room and family room. A lot of storage is available. Large primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and private bathroom. New carpet has been installed in the other two bedrooms. The home features a laundry room that includes a work station for various activities. Kitchen features new refrigerator, range hood and stainless steel kitchen sink. A new outside shed has been added which is wired and finished with drywall. Both the home and shed are newly painted.

18. 2022-11-09
    status Pending 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Lovely home located in a well established Senior park. Very spacious open floor plan with a large living room and family room. A lot of storage is available. Large primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and private bathroom. New carpet has been installed in the other two bedrooms. The home features a laundry room that includes a work station for various activities. Kitchen features new refrigerator, range hood and stainless steel kitchen sink. A new outside shed has been added which is wired and finished with drywall. Both the home and shed are newly painted.

19. 2022-10-21
    price $120,000 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Lovely home located in a well established Senior park. Very spacious open floor plan with a large living room and family room. A lot of storage is available. Large primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and private bathroom. New carpet has been installed in the other two bedrooms. The home features a laundry room that includes a work station for various activities. Kitchen features new refrigerator, range hood and stainless steel kitchen sink. A new outside shed has been added which is wired and finished with drywall. Both the home and shed are newly painted.

20. 2022-10-09
    status Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Lovely home located in a well established Senior park. Very spacious open floor plan with a large living room and family room. A lot of storage is available. Large primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and private bathroom. New carpet has been installed in the other two bedrooms. The home features a laundry room that includes a work station for various activities. Kitchen features new refrigerator, range hood and stainless steel kitchen sink. A new outside shed has been added which is wired and finished with drywall. Both the home and shed are newly painted.

21. 2022-10-09
    price $130,000 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Lovely home located in a well established Senior park. Very spacious open floor plan with a large living room and family room. A lot of storage is available. Large primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and private bathroom. New carpet has been installed in the other two bedrooms. The home features a laundry room that includes a work station for various activities. Kitchen features new refrigerator, range hood and stainless steel kitchen sink. A new outside shed has been added which is wired and finished with drywall. Both the home and shed are newly painted.

22. 2022-09-29
    status Pending 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Lovely home located in a well established Senior park. Very spacious open floor plan with a large living room and family room. A lot of storage is available. Large primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and private bathroom. New carpet has been installed in the other two bedrooms. The home features a laundry room that includes a work station for various activities. Kitchen features new refrigerator, range hood and stainless steel kitchen sink. A new outside shed has been added which is wired and finished with drywall. Both the home and shed are newly painted.

23. 2022-08-20
    listed $135,000 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Lovely home located in a well established Senior park. Very spacious open floor plan with a large living room and family room. A lot of storage is available. Large primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and private bathroom. New carpet has been installed in the other two bedrooms. The home features a laundry room that includes a work station for various activities. Kitchen features new refrigerator, range hood and stainless steel kitchen sink. A new outside shed has been added which is wired and finished with drywall. Both the home and shed are newly painted.

24. 2021-02-17
    soldstatus $84,500
25. 2020-10-28
    listed $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥77°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,647
• − Property taxes: −$1,780
• − Insurance: −$593
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$3,452
• Taxable income: $7,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,727
• After-tax cash flow: $6,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to its kitchen and bathroom to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and cluttered
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and small
• Minor exterior siding — some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace countertops — new countertops improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both update kitchen cabinets — new cabinets modernize the space and improve functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and cluttered	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and small	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace countertops — new countertops improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — new cabinets modernize the space and improve functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pacific Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629430
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,146
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #7442
• State rank: #560 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Arcata

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #9258

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arcata, CA
• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• City population: 21,980
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,980
• Household income: $53,114
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -373.51%
• Current HPI: 208.5938
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.08%
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+47.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $124,900 HAR
• 2025-07-29 Sold (MLS) $128,821 HAR
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $128,821 HAR
• 2025-05-10 Listed $143,341 HAR
• 2022-12-12 Sold (MLS) $122,000 HAR
• 2022-11-09 Pending — HAR
• 2022-10-21 Price Changed $120,000 HAR
• 2022-10-09 Relisted — HAR
• 2022-10-09 Price Changed $130,000 HAR
• 2022-09-29 Pending — HAR
• 2022-08-20 Listed $135,000 HAR
• 2021-02-17 Sold (MLS) $84,500 HAR
• 2020-10-28 Listed $84,500 HAR