3688 Smugglers Cove Rd

Freeland, WA 98253

$370,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,156/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$57
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $203/mo
• Annual: $2,434/yr
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $103,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (14.7% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $316k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#367 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Coupeville School District (rural): math 54% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #40 of 291 in WA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Coupeville Elementary School (491 students, 47% FRL); Coupeville Middle School (216 students, 38% FRL); Coupeville High School (289 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 402 units permitted in Island County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Island County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $370k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 1.9% in Freeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.