411 Fourth St

Luray, VA 22835

$179,900C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,685/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $217/mo
• Annual: $2,610/yr
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.3% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#93 in VA, #3,012 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Luray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.