411 Fourth St · Luray, VA 22835

$179,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1962 Est $328k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home Ownership Awaits! 3 BR 1 BA manufactured home in the heart of Luray! Enjoy mountain views from this large , level, .4 acre in-town lot! This property has been well maintained and updated by current owner! Updates include: new flooring, interior paint, updates to kitchen and shiplap ceilings. Walk to shopping, restaurants, parks and schools! Location location location and this property has a tremendous location!

Key facts

• Level lot
• Walk to restaurants
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• LEVEL LOT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SHIPLAP CEILINGS
• WALK TO SHOPPING
• WALK TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Luray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#93 in VA, #3,012 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $168,481 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Sixth St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	13mo	$284,000	$211	62
514 6th St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	13mo	$284,000	$211	62
320 8th Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,284 (-14%)	5mo	$329,000	$256	61
11 Bristol Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+13%)	2mo	$120,000	$71	55
26 O'flinn St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-10%)	3mo	$295,000	$219	51
174 Reservoir Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-7%)	8mo	$375,000	$269	47
42 Oakcrest Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+14%)	9mo	$335,000	$195	46
302 Woodland Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,625 (+8%)	1mo	$221,500	$136	46
182 Reservoir Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	4mo	$340,000	$253	43
6 Wilson Ave	0.45mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,336 (-11%)	12mo	$345,000	$258	41
184 Reservoir Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	10mo	$320,000	$238	38
66 N Broad St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+10%)	9mo	$234,000	$141	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,354
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,245
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22835

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,142/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,410

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $179,900 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Home Ownership Awaits! 3 BR 1 BA manufactured home in the heart of Luray! Enjoy mountain views from this large , level, .4 acre in-town lot! This property has been well maintained and updated by current owner! Updates include: new flooring, interior paint, updates to kitchen and shiplap ceilings. Walk to shopping, restaurants, parks and schools! Location location location and this property has a tremendous location!

17. 2026-03-30
    historical
18. 2025-11-03
    price $180,000
19. 2025-11-03
    price $180,000
20. 2025-08-21
    listed $199,900 Active
21. 2025-08-21
    listed $199,900 Active
22. 2023-01-23
    historical
23. 2023-01-20
    soldstatus $140,000 Sold
24. 2023-01-20
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed
25. 2023-01-06
    status Pending
26. 2023-01-06
    status Pending
27. 2022-11-30
    listed $169,000 Active
28. 2022-11-30
    listed $169,000 Active
29. 2021-08-27
    soldstatus $81,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,142 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$333/yr (+$28/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,142
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$89
• After-tax cash flow: $2,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Luray

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #3012

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Luray, VA
• City population: 11,358
• Population (ZIP): 11,358

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.88%
• Current HPI: 312.1156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+119.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $180,000 HRAR
• 2025-08-21 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $199,900 HRAR
• 2023-01-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-20 Sold (MLS) $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-20 Sold (MLS) $140,000 HRAR
• 2023-01-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-06 Pending — HRAR
• 2022-11-30 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-30 Listed $169,000 HRAR
• 2021-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $81,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,142 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.