15730 Koi Gdns

Porter Heights, TX 77302

$379,990D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 187 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$116
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-513/mo
• Annual: $-6,152/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $106,397

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (36.4% below list).
• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $67k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.