15730 Koi Gdns · Porter Heights, TX 77302

$379,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Land · 187 Days on market

Built 2026 6,250 sqft lot $170/sqft · 14% below area Est $442k · 14% under $116/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Split floor plan
• Extended patio

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• CENTRALLY LOCATED STUDY
• EXTENDED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $67k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $241,538 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,799
• List price: $379,990
• Delta: -13.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-93,588
• Equity at exit: $56,658

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-120,888
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$116
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,064

Max offer price $289,418

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-298	-5% $-405	+0% $-513	+5% $-620	+10% $-728
Rent	-10% $-704	-5% $-608	+0% $-513	+5% $-417	+10% $-322
Rate	-1.0pp $-321	-0.5pp $-416	base $-513	+0.5pp $-611	+1.0pp $-711

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	24d	1	1.01mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	44d	1	1.03mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $116 · $1,392/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $379,990 Pending 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,990 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,990 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,990 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,990 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,990 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $379,990 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $379,990 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $379,990 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,990 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,990 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    price $389,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

13. 2026-05-12
    price $389,990 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

14. 2026-03-10
    price $399,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

15. 2026-03-09
    price $399,990 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

16. 2026-03-03
    price $410,080 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

17. 2026-02-27
    price $410,080 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

18. 2026-01-01
    price $399,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

19. 2025-12-31
    price $399,990 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

20. 2025-12-25
    price $405,480 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

21. 2025-12-24
    price $405,480 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

22. 2025-12-20
    price $399,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

23. 2025-12-19
    price $399,990 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

24. 2025-12-19
    status Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

25. 2025-12-19
    historical 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

26. 2025-12-13
    price $410,990 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

27. 2025-12-12
    listed $446,800 Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

28. 2025-12-10
    listed $446,800 Active 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    The large living area with an open concept kitchen and dining area is a highlight of the Dorchester. The 11-foot ceiling and picture windows in the dining, kitchen and breakfast space create an inviting atmosphere. The split floor plan has four bedrooms and a centrally located study, which can be used as a play or exercise room. The primary suite is a place for relaxing at the end of the day. The primary bath features a separate tub and shower, dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. The extended patio is a great place for outdoor fun.

29. 2024-12-20
    historical
30. 2024-12-06
    soldstatus
31. 2024-11-15
    listed $411,990 Active
32. 2024-11-14
    historical
33. 2024-07-25
    price $372,990
34. 2024-07-01
    listed $392,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,954 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,108/yr (+$426/mo · 276.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,319
• − Management: −$2,319
• − HOA: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$13,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $389,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $389,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $410,080 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $410,080 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $405,480 Zillow
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $405,480 HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-19 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $410,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Listed $446,800 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $446,800 HARMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-15 Listed $411,990 HARMLS
• 2024-11-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $372,990 HARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listed $392,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,846 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.