GREGORY Plan

Mundelein, IL 60060

$411,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,798 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,361/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,338
• Tax + insurance: −$743
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $-426/mo
• Annual: $-5,113/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.10%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $124,853

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $412k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $336k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#12 in IL, #274 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Adlai E Stevenson Hsd 125 (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #3 of 620 in IL (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Diamond Lake School (321 students, 0% FRL); West Oak Middle School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 302 students, 0% FRL); Adlai E Stevenson High School (math 72% / reading 73%, grade B+, #7 of 693 statewide, top 1%, 4,489 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 72% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Adlai E Stevenson Hsd 125 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Mundelein — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.