34495 Agave #15107

French Valley, CA 92596

$473,500D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,674 sqft · Built 2023 · Condo · Active · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,393/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,483
• Tax + insurance: −$903
• HOA: −$327
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$712
• Net cashflow: $-1,033/mo
• Annual: $-12,390/yr
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.35%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $132,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $474k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (38.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (28.4% below list).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?